CIG(SH:603083) Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-06-09 11:23Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The year-on-year growth rate of asphalt production is 22.5%, and the year-on-year growth rate of demand is 27.5%. The inventory maintains a slight reduction, with overall pressure being low and the inventory structure being good. Both factory and social inventories have decreased. The basis has strengthened month-on-month, the spot price has strengthened while the futures price has remained flat, and the real - world situation provides fair support. However, the futures market shows concerns about rainy - season demand. The cracking spread on the futures has weakened month - on - month, with crude oil performing strongly and the profit of downstream products being passively weakened. The overall valuation is still at a high level. In the short term (from mid - late June to early August), it remains to be seen whether the decline in demand growth caused by the rainy season can match the increase in production growth under high profits, and the demand side is under pressure in the short term. In the long - term, there is still an expected increase in demand in the last year of the 14th Five - Year Plan [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Asphalt Price and Volatility - The price range forecast for the asphalt main contract in the month is 3400 - 3600 yuan/ton. The current 20 - day rolling volatility is 15.15%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility in the past 3 years is 17.58% [1]. 3.2 Asphalt Risk Management Strategy | Behavior Orientation | Spot Exposure | Strategy Recommendation | Hedging Tool | Buying/Selling Direction | Hedging Ratio | Suggested Entry Range | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Inventory Management | Long | To prevent inventory losses, short asphalt futures according to the enterprise's inventory situation to lock in profits and cover production costs | bu2509 | Sell | 25% | 3500 - 3600 | | Procurement Management | Short | To prevent the increase in procurement costs due to rising asphalt prices, buy asphalt futures at the current stage to lock in procurement costs in advance | bu2509 | Buy | 50% | 3300 - 3400 | [1] 3.3 Price and Basis Data of Asphalt on June 9, 2025 | Region | Spot Price (yuan/ton) | Day - on - Day Change | Week - on - Week Change | 09 Contract Basis (yuan/ton) | Day - on - Day Change | Week - on - Week Change | Spot to Brent Cracking (yuan/barrel) | Day - on - Day Change | Week - on - Week Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shandong | 3695 | 0 | 70 | 207 | - 10 | - 4 | 161.34 | 0.3399 | - 15.9129 | | Yangtze River Delta | 3650 | 0 | 70 | 162 | - 10 | - 4 | - | - | - | | North China | 3745 | 85 | 100 | 257 | 75 | 26 | - | - | - | | South China | 3410 | 0 | 30 | - 78 | - 10 | - 44 | - | - | - | [3] 3.4利多 and利空 Factors - 利多 Factors: The asphalt's own inventory structure is good, and there is a seasonal peak in demand [5]. - 利空 Factors: The cracking spread remains at a high level; after the end of maintenance, the production of some refineries has recovered; the plum - rain season in the South has dragged down demand, and the upward driving force of the basis is insufficient [2][3].