固定收益市场周观察：继续以挖掘票息为先

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For credit bonds, continue to focus on coupon hunting and maintain a 3 - year duration for in - depth exploration [8][9][10] - For convertible bonds, the sentiment is weak, and it is recommended to reserve positions and wait for right - side adding opportunities [11][32] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Credit & Convertible Bond Market Observation and Thinking 3.1.1 Credit Bonds - From June 2nd to June 8th, the primary issuance of credit bonds was 273.7 billion yuan, with a slight increase compared to the previous period. The total repayment amount was 147.5 billion yuan, a reduction of about 1/3 compared to the previous period, resulting in a net inflow of 126.2 billion yuan. The average coupon rates of AAA and AA+ grades were 1.99% and 2.18% respectively, remaining flat and decreasing by 27bp compared to the previous week [8] - Short - term yields of each grade increased slightly by about 1bp, with higher - grade bonds having a larger increase. Long - term yields generally decreased by about 2bp. The risk - free yield curve shifted downward by 2 - 3bp. Short - duration spreads of each grade generally widened by about 4bp, while medium - and long - term spreads fluctuated within ±1bp. The term spreads of each grade continued to narrow by about 2bp, with the 5Y - 1Y spreads of medium - and high - grade bonds narrowing by 4 - 5bp. Most grade spreads narrowed by about 2bp, except for the 5Y AA - AAA spread which widened by 2bp [9] - In terms of urban investment bond credit spreads, most provincial credit spreads widened slightly by 1 - 2bp, with some high - valuation areas narrowing slightly. In terms of industrial bond credit spreads, industry spreads fluctuated narrowly but generally tended to widen, with a central value of about 1bp, and the real estate industry continued to widen by 14bp [9] - Affected by the fewer trading days during the holiday, the turnover rate decreased by 0.75pct to 1.01%. High - discount bonds were mainly real - estate enterprise bonds, with high - frequency and large - amplitude discount real - estate entities mainly involving Country Garden [9] - The bond market was stable last week, with a significant decline on Friday. The central bank has a strong willingness to support, but as spreads continue to narrow, the risk of credit bond valuation being affected by interest - rate bond fluctuations is increasing. It is not recommended to extend the duration at this stage, and it is advisable to maintain a 3 - year duration for in - depth exploration [10] 3.1.2 Convertible Bonds - Last week, the equity market fluctuated upward, with all major indices rising. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.13%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.42%, the CSI 300 rose 0.88%, the CSI 1000 rose 2.10%, the ChiNext Index rose 2.32%, the STAR 50 rose 1.50%, and the Beijing Stock Exchange 50 rose 1.30%. The daily average trading volume increased by 114.305 billion to 1.21 trillion yuan [11] - Convertible bonds significantly followed the upward trend. The CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 1.08%, the parity center rose 0.7% to 96.0 yuan, and the conversion premium rate center decreased 1.0% to 26.0%. The daily average trading volume significantly increased to 64.075 billion yuan. Medium - and low - grade, high - price, and small - cap convertible bonds performed well, while high - grade and large - cap convertible bonds were relatively weak [11] - Currently in a data vacuum period, the equity market is expected to fluctuate. From a long - term perspective, the convertible bond market still has allocation demand, and the logic of scarce bottom - positions remains unchanged. The current convertible bond valuation is relatively neutral, not significantly overvalued. Considering potential credit risk disturbances in June, it is recommended to reserve positions and wait for right - side adding opportunities [11] 3.2 Credit Bond Review 3.2.1 Negative Information Monitoring - There were no bond defaults, overdue payments, downgrades of corporate or bond ratings, or overseas rating downgrades during the week from June 2nd to June 8th [12] - There were three major negative events: Guizhou Hongcai Investment Group Co., Ltd. was involved in two major lawsuits with a total execution amount of 604 million yuan; Huai'an Hongxin State - owned Assets Investment Management Co., Ltd. was sued for failing to pay project funds, with a total execution amount of 261 million yuan; and the credit enhancement measures of "H20 Shanshan 1" of Shanshan Group Co., Ltd. had significant adverse changes [13] 3.2.2 Primary Issuance - The primary issuance volume of credit bonds increased slightly compared to the previous period, while the maturity scale decreased significantly, resulting in a significant increase in the net inflow, exceeding 100 billion yuan. Only one credit bond was cancelled or postponed for issuance [13][14] - The primary issuance cost of medium - and low - grade bonds decreased significantly compared to the previous period, while that of high - grade bonds remained flat. The average coupon rates of AAA and AA+ grades were 1.99% and 2.18% respectively, remaining flat and decreasing by 27bp compared to the previous week. The frequency of newly issued AA/AA - grade bonds remained at a low level [14] 3.2.3 Secondary Trading - Credit bond valuations increased at the short - end and decreased at the long - end. The risk - free interest rate curve shifted downward. Short - end spreads of each grade widened significantly, while medium - and long - term spreads remained basically unchanged [16] - The term spreads of each grade continued to narrow by about 2bp, with the 5Y - 1Y spreads of medium - and high - grade bonds narrowing by 4 - 5bp. Most grade spreads narrowed by about 2bp, except for the 5Y AA - AAA spread which widened by 2bp [18] - In terms of urban investment bond credit spreads, most provincial credit spreads widened slightly by 1 - 2bp, with some high - valuation areas narrowing slightly. In terms of industrial bond credit spreads, industry spreads fluctuated narrowly but generally tended to widen, with a central value of about 1bp, and the real estate industry continued to widen by 14bp [21][23] - Affected by the fewer trading days during the holiday, the turnover rate decreased by 0.75pct to 1.01%. High - discount bonds were mainly real - estate enterprise bonds, with high - frequency and large - amplitude discount real - estate entities mainly involving Country Garden [24] 3.3 Convertible Bond Review 3.3.1 Market Overall Performance - From June 3rd to June 6th, the equity market fluctuated upward, with all major indices rising. The communication, non - ferrous metals, and electronics sectors led the gains, while the household appliances, food and beverage, and transportation sectors led the losses [28] - Seven convertible bonds with the highest gains outperformed their underlying stocks. Jinling, Yitian, and Jingyuan Convertible Bonds led the gains, rising 24.42%, 14.89%, and 14.85% respectively. Tianyang, Jinling, and Limin Convertible Bonds were relatively active in trading [28] 3.3.2 Convertible Bonds Followed the Upward Trend, and the Wait - and - See Sentiment Remained - Convertible bonds followed the upward trend. The CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 1.08%, the parity center rose 0.7% to 96.0 yuan, and the conversion premium rate center decreased 1.0% to 26.0%. The daily average trading volume significantly increased to 64.075 billion yuan. Medium - and low - grade, high - price, and small - cap convertible bonds performed well, while high - grade and large - cap convertible bonds were relatively weak [32] - Currently in a data vacuum period, the equity market is expected to fluctuate. From a long - term perspective, the convertible bond market still has allocation demand, and the logic of scarce bottom - positions remains unchanged. The current convertible bond valuation is relatively neutral, not significantly overvalued. Considering potential credit risk disturbances in June, it is recommended to reserve positions and wait for right - side adding opportunities [32]