Nanhua Futures(SH:603093) Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-06-09 11:42Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - After the China-US joint statement, terminal textile and clothing orders recovered, downstream sentiment improved, and polyester raw materials were strong. However, the actual demand boost from rush exports was lower than expected, and there is a high possibility of polyester production cuts. The demand outlook has weakened marginally, and the polyester sector has become a choice for capital short allocation to reduce valuations. The tight spot market has loosened, and the previously high valuation of ethylene glycol has come under pressure. With uncertainties in the China-US talks and the polyester production cuts, and the potential for significant swings in macro expectations and sentiment, shorting at the current position is not cost-effective. It is recommended to wait for the macro situation to become clearer before making further observations [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Polyester Price Range Forecast - The price range forecast for ethylene glycol in the next month is 4150 - 4650 yuan, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 18.69% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 42.7%. For PX, it is 6300 - 6900 yuan, with a volatility of 25.01% and a historical percentile of 80.1%. For PTA, it is 4400 - 4900 yuan, with a volatility of 23.92% and a historical percentile of 71.7%. For bottle chips, it is 5700 - 6250 yuan, with a volatility of 19.33% and a historical percentile of 63.7% [1] Polyester Hedging Strategy - Inventory Management: When the finished - product inventory of ethylene glycol is high and there are concerns about price drops, to prevent inventory losses, 25% of the inventory can be hedged by short - selling ethylene glycol futures (EG2509) in the range of 4400 - 4500 yuan. 50% can be hedged by buying put options (EG2509P4200) to prevent large price drops and selling call options (EG2509C4450) to reduce capital costs [1] - Procurement Management: When the regular inventory for procurement is low and procurement is based on orders, to prevent rising ethylene glycol prices from increasing procurement costs, 50% of the procurement can be hedged by buying ethylene glycol futures (EG2509) at 4200 - 4250 yuan. 75% can be hedged by selling put options (EG2509P4200) to collect option premiums and lock in the purchase price if the price drops [1] Core Contradictions - After the China - US joint statement, the polyester industry chain showed positive signs. However, the actual demand boost from rush exports was insufficient, and there is a high possibility of polyester production cuts. The demand outlook has weakened, and the polyester sector has become a target for short - selling to reduce valuations. The tight spot market has loosened, and the high valuation of ethylene glycol has faced pressure. Due to uncertainties in the China - US talks and production cuts, shorting at the current position is not advisable [2] Bullish Factors - The US Department of Commerce requires ethane export enterprises to obtain licenses to export ethane to China, posing a long - term risk to the raw material supply of ethane - to - ethylene glycol plants. However, the impact on the ethylene glycol supply before the 09 contract is expected to be limited. Also, the prices of crude oil and coal at the cost end have stopped falling [3] Bearish Factors - Price Changes: On June 9, 2025, compared with June 6, 2025, the price of Brent crude oil increased by 0.2 dollars to 66.7 dollars per barrel, while the prices of naphtha CFR Japan, toluene FOB Korea, and MX Korea decreased [4] - Industry News: There are rumors of production cuts by major filament manufacturers. If implemented, polyester production will be further reduced, and the expected weakening of ethylene glycol demand will be realized in advance. The outflow of bonded warehouse receipts has led to a significant decline in holders' willingness to hold, and the basis has weakened. The decline in the freight index indicates that the intensity of rush exports is lower than expected [6] Market Data - Price and Spread: The prices of various polyester - related products such as PX, PTA, ethylene glycol, and polyester fibers showed different degrees of change on June 9, 2025, compared with previous dates. The basis and spreads between different contracts also changed [7] - Processing Fees and Profits: The processing fees and profits of products such as gasoline reforming, aromatics reforming, and polyester filaments also changed. The production and sales rates of polyester filaments, short fibers, and polyester chips also showed fluctuations [7][8]