Nanhua Futures(SH:603093) Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-06-09 11:41Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The main logic of the external market lies in the speculation on the planting weather of US soybeans, which is gradually recovering under the China-US peace talks. The domestic market is under continuous pressure from the actual supply, suppressing the near - month and spot prices of meal products. However, the long - position speculation on the weather market and the unfalsifiable expectation of supply gap due to the trade war in the far - month contracts lead to a stronger far - month trend [4]. - The supply pressure in the second quarter and the third quarter is relatively large, resulting in a weak performance of the spot basis. The supply in the second and third quarters is still abundant, but there is a gap in fourth - quarter ship purchases. On the rapeseed meal side, the spot supply pressure remains, and it is difficult to reduce inventory. The far - month supply has the expectation of Sino - Canadian relations improvement [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Oilseed Price Range Forecast - Monthly price range forecasts: The price range for soybean meal is 2800 - 3300, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 11.1% and a historical percentile (3 - year) of 11.5%. The price range for rapeseed meal is 2450 - 2750, with a current volatility of 0.1765 and a historical percentile (3 - year) of 0.3218 [3]. 3.2 Oilseed Hedging Strategy | Behavior Orientation | Spot Exposure | Strategy Recommendation | Hedging Tool | Buying/Selling Direction | Hedging Ratio (%) | Suggested Entry Interval | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Trader Inventory Management | Long | Short soybean meal futures according to enterprise inventory to lock in profits and make up for production costs | M2509 | Sell | 25 | 3300 - 3400 | | Feed Mill Procurement Management | Short | Buy soybean meal futures at present to lock in procurement costs in advance | M2509 | Buy | 50 | 2850 - 3000 | | Oil Mill Inventory Management | Long | Short soybean meal futures according to enterprise situation to lock in profits and make up for production costs | M2509 | Sell | 50 | 3100 - 3200 | [3] 3.3 Oilseed Futures Prices | Futures Contract | Closing Price | Daily Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Soybean Meal 01 | 3060 | 12 | 0.39% | | Soybean Meal 05 | 2728 | 7 | 0.26% | | Soybean Meal 09 | 3010 | 52 | 1.76% | | Rapeseed Meal 01 | 2347 | 34 | 1.47% | | Rapeseed Meal 05 | 2360 | 9 | 0.38% | | Rapeseed Meal 09 | 2608 | 41 | 1.6% | | CBOT Yellow Soybeans | 1058 | 0 | 0% | | Offshore RMB | 7.1862 | 0 | 0% | [5][8] 3.4 Bean and Rapeseed Meal Spreads | Spread Type | Price | Daily Change | | --- | --- | --- | | M01 - 05 | 327 | 0 | | M05 - 09 | - 289 | - 26 | | M09 - 01 | - 38 | 7 | | RM01 - 05 | - 4 | 12 | | RM05 - 09 | - 257 | - 19 | | RM09 - 01 | 261 | 7 | | Soybean Meal Rizhao Spot | 2840 | 40 | | Soybean Meal Rizhao Basis | - 170 | - 12 | | Rapeseed Meal Fujian Spot | 2492 | - 2 | | Rapeseed Meal Fujian Basis | - 116 | - 43 | | Bean and Rapeseed Meal Spot Spread | 348 | 42 | | Bean and Rapeseed Meal Futures Spread | 402 | 0 | [9] 3.5 Oilseed Import Costs and Crushing Profits | Import Item | Price (Yuan/Ton) | Daily Change | Weekly Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | US Gulf Soybean Import Cost (23%) | 4498.7624 | 0 | - 0.0375 | | Brazilian Soybean Import Cost | 3780.97 | 55.27 | 122.8 | | Cost Difference between US Gulf (3%) and US Gulf (23%) | - 731.5061 | - 5.6889 | - 7.639 | | US Gulf Soybean Import Profit (23%) | - 704.3824 | 0 | 61.638 | | Brazilian Soybean Import Profit | 248.0694 | 3.278 | - 0.0526 | | Canadian Rapeseed Import Futures Profit | 39 | 117 | 94 | | Canadian Rapeseed Import Spot Profit | 23 | 120 | 91 | [10]