2025年夏季行业比较投资展望：PB-ROE双低反转策略

Investment Rating - The report suggests a focus on industries with low PB-ROE ratios, particularly financials, computing, defense, pharmaceuticals, and electrical equipment, indicating a potential for undervalued reversals [4][5]. Core Insights - Since April 2025, global trade tariff conflicts have led to significant volatility in capital markets, with markets in Japan, Germany, and the US rising by 5-10% compared to pre-tariff levels, while Chinese asset prices have slightly declined [3][4]. - The report emphasizes the importance of performance benchmarks for public funds, highlighting that financials, dividends, and computing are major underweight sectors [3][4]. - The report identifies a calendar effect where certain sectors like electronics and military are expected to yield higher absolute returns in June and July [3][4]. Summary by Sections Industry Rotation Review and Outlook - Consumer, pharmaceutical, banking, and dividend assets have shown superior performance [12]. Fund Analysis - New regulations for public funds stress the significance of performance benchmarks, with financials, dividends, and computing being the main underweight sectors [3][4]. Market Trading Characteristics - Assets that have seen declines for four consecutive years, such as pharmaceuticals and certain consumer goods, are beginning to stabilize, while real estate and liquor sectors have yet to show improvement [3][4]. Economic Conditions, Valuation, and Capital Chips - The current PB-ROE framework favors industries poised for undervalued reversals, including financials, computing, defense, pharmaceuticals, and electrical equipment [4][5]. Industry Policies - The report discusses ongoing policies aimed at stabilizing capital markets, boosting consumption, and addressing internal competition, with a focus on new productivity [4][5]. 2025 Industry Allocation - The report provides a detailed allocation table for the second half of 2025, indicating sectors with potential for absolute returns [12].