申万宏源研究晨会报告-20250610

Market Overview - The global market has experienced significant fluctuations due to trade tensions and the impact of Trump's tariffs, leading to a notable depreciation of the US dollar and high volatility in US Treasury yields [10][11] - As of June 1, 2025, the tactical asset allocation strategy by Shenwan Hongyuan has yielded a 4.8% increase year-to-date, outperforming the strategic allocation by 0.8%, primarily through over-allocating to Hong Kong stocks and gold while under-allocating to oil and the US dollar [10][11] Investment Strategy - The report emphasizes a PB-ROE dual low reversal strategy, highlighting that since April 2025, global trade tensions have led to significant market volatility, with Japanese, German, and US markets rising by 5-10% compared to pre-tariff levels, while Chinese asset prices have slightly declined [12] - The report suggests that the risk appetite in the A+H markets has decreased, favoring dividend assets, with consumer, pharmaceutical, and banking sectors showing strong performance, while the TMT sector lags behind [12] Sector Analysis - The report identifies several sectors with potential investment opportunities, including consumer goods, pharmaceuticals, and banking, which have shown positive growth, while the TMT sector remains under pressure [12][15] - The analysis indicates that sectors like healthcare and certain consumer products have stabilized after a prolonged downturn, while real estate and liquor sectors have yet to show significant recovery [14][15] Future Outlook - The report anticipates that the restructuring of the global financial order will provide opportunities for the internationalization of the Renminbi and the revaluation of Renminbi assets, particularly in the context of the Belt and Road Initiative [10][11] - It also highlights the importance of strategic asset allocation, suggesting that non-US assets may offer better long-term returns as the dollar's credibility declines [10][11] Technological Innovations - The report discusses the potential of new hardware innovations, particularly in the context of AI and semiconductor advancements, which are expected to drive significant changes in the technology landscape [22] - Key areas of focus include GPU+HBM, optical devices, silicon photonics, and autonomous vehicle technologies, which are anticipated to present substantial investment opportunities in the near to medium term [22]