TIANSHAN ALUMINUM(SZ:002532) Tianfeng Securities·2025-06-10 04:18Investment Rating - The investment rating for Tianshan Aluminum is "Buy" with a target price reflecting a potential upside of over 20% within the next six months [2][16]. Core Views - Tianshan Aluminum plans to enhance its 1.4 million tons of electrolytic aluminum capacity through a green low-carbon efficiency upgrade, which is expected to increase production capacity by 21% to approximately 1.4 million tons per year after completion [1][2]. - The project, with an investment of approximately 2.231 billion yuan, is set to be completed in about 10 months, targeting production by April 2026 [1][2]. - The company anticipates a favorable supply-demand situation for electrolytic aluminum, with cost reduction potential due to its integrated layout, which is expected to enhance performance in the coming years [2]. Summary by Sections Production Capacity and Technology - Current electrolytic aluminum capacity stands at 1.2 million tons, with an actual annual output of about 1.16 million tons. The planned upgrade will add 240,000 tons of net capacity, representing a 21% increase [2]. - The project will utilize advanced energy-saving technologies, achieving industry-leading levels of power consumption [2]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2023 to 2027 show a decline in 2023, followed by a recovery with expected growth rates of 10.30% in 2026 and 7.45% in 2027 [4]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to increase from 2.21 billion yuan in 2023 to 6.47 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding P/E ratios decreasing from 17.00 to 5.79 over the same period [4][5]. Market Position and Valuation - The current market capitalization of Tianshan Aluminum is approximately 33.29 billion yuan, with a price-to-book ratio of 1.56 and a price-to-sales ratio of 1.29 [5]. - The company is positioned within the non-ferrous metals industry, specifically focusing on industrial metals [2].