白糖产业风险管理日报-20250610

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The current market is in the new Brazilian sugar - crushing season, with a focus on the current and future Brazilian sugar production. The 24/25 Indian sugar production decrease and Thai increase are established facts. After the restriction of domestic syrup and premixes and the completion of domestic sugar crushing, the overall situation has little change. Recently, the market is mainly trading on the expected increase in production in Brazil, India, and Thailand in the 25/26 sugar - crushing season [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Sugar Price Forecast and Risk Management Strategy - Price Range Forecast: The predicted monthly price range for sugar is 5600 - 5800, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 6.45% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 1.6% [3]. - Inventory Management Strategy: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about sugar price drops, they can short Zhengzhou sugar futures (SR2507) with a 25% hedging ratio at an entry range of 5800 - 5850 to lock in profits and cover production costs. They can also sell call options (SR509C6000) with a 75% hedging ratio at an entry range of 20 - 30 to collect premiums and reduce costs [3]. - Procurement Management Strategy: For enterprises with low regular procurement inventory aiming to purchase based on orders, they can buy Zhengzhou sugar futures (SR2507) with a 50% hedging ratio at an entry range of 5630 - 5680 to lock in procurement costs. They can also sell put options (SR509P5600) with a 75% hedging ratio at an entry range of 30 - 40 to collect premiums and reduce procurement costs [3]. 3.2 Market Situation Analysis 3.2.1 Core Contradiction - The market is currently focused on the current and future Brazilian sugar production during the new Brazilian sugar - crushing season. The 24/25 Indian sugar production decrease and Thai increase are established, and after domestic restrictions and the end of domestic sugar crushing, the situation is relatively stable. The market is trading on the expected production increase in Brazil, India, and Thailand in the 25/26 sugar - crushing season [4]. 3.2.2 Bullish Factors - As of the end of May, Guangxi's cumulative sugar sales reached 464.53 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 53.71 million tons, and the sales - to - production ratio was 71.85%, a year - on - year increase of 5.39 percentage points [5]. - The Indian National Federation of Cooperative Sugar Factories (NFCSF) expects India's 2024/25 sugar - crushing season's ending sugar inventory to be between 480 - 500 million tons, sufficient to meet domestic sugar consumption from October to November 2025 [5]. - China has suspended imports of Thai syrup and premixes [5]. - From the beginning of the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season to the first half of May, the cumulative sugar - cane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil was 76.714 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 19.466 million tons (20.24%); the sugar - making ratio was 48.61%, a year - on - year increase of 1.01%; the cumulative sugar production was 3.989 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.17 million tons (22.68%) [5]. 3.2.3 Bearish Factors - In the 2024/25 sugar - crushing season, Guangxi's cumulative sugar - cane crushing volume was 48.5954 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.5847 million tons, but the mixed - sugar production was 6.465 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.2836 million tons, and the sugar - making rate was 13.30%, a year - on - year increase of 1.22 percentage points [6]. - Analysis firm JOB predicts that Brazil's sugar production in the 25/26 sugar - crushing season will increase by 5% to 46 million tons [6]. - Thailand's 24/25 sugar - crushing season production is expected to increase to 10.39 million tons [6]. - The Indian monsoon has arrived 3 - 4 days earlier than usual. The chairman of the federation expects a strong recovery in India's sugar production in the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season, reaching about 35 million tons due to good monsoon conditions, expanded sugar - cane planting areas in major producing regions, and the government's increase in the minimum sugar - cane purchase price [6]. 3.3 Sugar Price Data 3.3.1 Sugar Basis Daily Changes - On June 9, 2025, the basis of Nanning - SR01 was 490, with a daily decrease of 10 and a weekly increase of 13; the basis of Kunming - SR01 was 310, with a daily decrease of 15 and a weekly increase of 3 [7]. 3.3.2 Sugar Futures Prices and Spreads - On June 10, 2025, the closing price of SR01 was 5580, with a daily decrease of 0.18% and a weekly decrease of 0.66%; the closing price of SR03 was 5554, with a daily decrease of 0.18% and a weekly decrease of 0.66%; etc. [9]. 3.3.3 Sugar Spot Prices and Regional Spreads - On June 10, 2025, the price of Nanning sugar was 6080, with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 10; the price of Liuzhou sugar was 6130, with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 15; the price of Kunming sugar was 5900, with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 45 [10]. 3.3.4 Sugar Import Price Daily Changes - On June 10, 2025, the in - quota price of Brazilian sugar imports was 4543, with a daily decrease of 12 and a weekly decrease of 48; the out - of - quota price was 5774, with a daily decrease of 15 and a weekly decrease of 62 [10].