洋河股份（002304）：主动调整，业绩承压

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" (previously "Buy") due to performance pressure and downward adjustments in profit forecasts for 2025-2026 [1]. Core Views - The company reported a significant decline in revenue and net profit for 2024 and Q1 2025, with a focus on sustainable development and market consolidation [7][8]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 23.17 yuan per 10 shares, with a total cash dividend of 7 billion yuan for 2024, resulting in a dividend payout ratio of 104.9% [7]. - The company aims to stabilize its market presence, particularly in Jiangsu and surrounding areas, while focusing on high-quality product offerings [7]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - For 2024, total revenue is projected at 28.876 billion yuan, a decrease of 12.8% year-on-year, with a net profit of 6.673 billion yuan, down 33.4% [6][7]. - The forecast for 2025 includes a revenue of 21.553 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 25.4%, and a net profit of 5.029 billion yuan, down 24.6% [6][7]. - The company’s gross margin for 2024 is expected to be 73.2%, a decrease of 2.09 percentage points, with a net profit margin of 23.1%, down 7.16 percentage points [7][8]. Market Performance - The company's stock closed at 66.38 yuan, with a market capitalization of approximately 99.995 billion yuan [1]. - The stock has experienced a 52-week high of 109.00 yuan and a low of 65.00 yuan, indicating volatility in its market performance [1].