JEI(SZ:000600) Soochow Securities·2025-06-10 15:13Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for investment [1]. Core Insights - The company benefits from a tight electricity supply-demand balance in Hebei Province, characterized as a "nuclear-poor" area, which is expected to continue for the next three years [8][10]. - The report highlights the significant efficiency improvements from the combined heat and power (CHP) model, achieving thermal efficiency rates of 80%-90% [39]. - The company is positioned favorably due to its proximity to major coal-producing provinces, which enhances its cost structure [10][37]. - The report anticipates substantial growth in net profit, projecting a rise from 1.34 billion yuan in 2025 to 1.60 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding P/E ratios of 10, 8, and 8 [1][10]. Summary by Sections 1. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The current supply in Hebei Province shows a conventional power source composition of 63% thermal, 2% hydro, and 0% nuclear, significantly lower than the national averages of 67%, 14%, and 5% respectively [15][20]. - The expected supply trend indicates a continuation of the "nuclear-poor" status, with thermal power growth slightly above the national average [20][26]. - The demand is bolstered by the "East Data West Computing" initiative, which is expected to release additional demand increments [27][28]. 2. Electricity Pricing - The report estimates that the annual long-term electricity price in Hebei will remain stable in 2025, with a projected decrease in coal prices by 15% [32]. - The average on-grid electricity price for 2024 is projected at 438.22 yuan per megawatt-hour, reflecting a decrease of 12.57 yuan per megawatt-hour year-on-year [32]. 3. Financial Projections - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of 1.34 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 152.2%, followed by 1.56 billion yuan in 2026 and 1.60 billion yuan in 2027 [1][10]. - The report outlines ambitious profit growth targets for the company, with goals set for 3.0 billion yuan, 5.2 billion yuan, and 6.3 billion yuan in the respective years of 2024 to 2026 [10][39]. 4. Operational Efficiency - The company operates 14 thermal power plants, achieving a total generation of 53.89 billion kilowatt-hours in 2024, an increase of 116.24 billion kilowatt-hours year-on-year [32][33]. - The average utilization hours for generating units increased by 103 hours year-on-year, indicating improved operational efficiency [32].