雅化集团（002497.SZ）深度报告：民爆为盾，锂盐为矛

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3][5]. Core Views - The company is driven by dual engines of civil explosives and lithium salt, with strong growth potential in both sectors. The civil explosives business provides stable income, while the lithium salt business is expected to recover as lithium prices have bottomed out [2][3]. Summary by Sections 1. Dual Business Model - The company has established a dual business model combining civil explosives and lithium salt, which supports long-term growth. It has undergone significant expansion through acquisitions since its establishment in 1952 [10][11]. 2. Lithium Salt Business - The lithium salt business has seen a significant increase in resource availability, positioning it as a key growth driver. The current lithium price of 54,000 CNY/ton is near the cash cost support level, indicating a potential bottoming out of prices [2][32]. - The company has multiple channels for resource expansion, with a self-sufficiency rate expected to exceed 25% by 2025. It has secured priority supply rights for the Li family mine and aims to increase processing capacity significantly [2][39]. - The company has established long-term supply agreements with major clients such as Tesla and CATL, ensuring stable demand for its products [2][3]. 3. Civil Explosives Business - The civil explosives segment has shown stable growth, benefiting from domestic infrastructure projects and international acquisitions. The company has expanded its footprint in the civil explosives market through strategic acquisitions [3][11]. - The company is well-positioned to benefit from ongoing infrastructure projects in China, particularly in regions like Sichuan and Xinjiang [3][11]. 4. Financial Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company is expected to see significant profit growth from 2025 to 2027, with projected net profits of 580 million, 970 million, and 1.25 billion CNY, respectively. The corresponding price-to-earnings ratios are forecasted to be 22, 13, and 10 times [3][4]. - The report suggests that the upcoming production ramp-up from the company's own lithium mines in Africa will enhance profitability, with both volume and price expected to rise in the lithium segment [3][4].