Nanhua Futures(SH:603093) Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-06-11 12:35Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - China-US relations have eased, driving market sentiment to recover. Coking coal has better rebound elasticity due to previous over - decline in the futures market, while coke rebounds following coking coal but with a weaker amplitude due to downstream price cuts, and the coking profit on the futures market has shrunk. The coking coal and coke futures have basically repaired the discount, and the current basis is in a reasonable range. Although there is rigid support for the demand for coking coal and coke in the short term, there are no conditions for bottom - fishing at present. It is recommended to close short positions at low levels and keep previous short positions at high levels. The industry can focus on hedging opportunities under low basis [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Double - Coking Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for coking coal is 700 - 850, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 39.52% and a historical percentile of 77.99%. For coke, the monthly price range forecast is 1270 - 1400, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 26.87% and a historical percentile of 54.55% [1] 2. Double - Coking Risk Management Strategy Recommendations - When steel mills propose price cuts for coke and are worried about price drops, for those with long spot exposure, it is recommended to short the J2509 contract of coke. The hedging ratio is 25% when the entry range is 1350 - 1380 and 50% when it is 1380 - 1410. When the coking coal spot inventory is high and there are concerns about further price drops, for those with long spot exposure, it is recommended to short the JM2509 contract of coking coal. The hedging ratio is 25% when the entry range is 770 - 800 and 50% when it is 800 - 830 [1] 3. Black Warehouse Receipt Daily Report - On June 11, 2025, compared with June 10, 2025, the warehouse receipts of hot - rolled coils decreased by 2358 tons, silicon iron decreased by 20 sheets, and silicon manganese increased by 288 sheets, while the warehouse receipts of rebar, iron ore, coking coal, and coke remained unchanged [2] 4. Bullish Factors - China - US representatives held talks in London, warming market sentiment; mine开工 declined, leading to a temporary mismatch in coking coal supply and demand; and it is the peak season for thermal coal demand, with pit - head prices firm [3] 5. Bearish Factors - An inflection point in hot metal production has emerged, leading to weaker demand for coking coal and coke [4] 6. Coking Coal and Coke Futures Prices - From June 4 to June 11, 2025, the coking coal and coke futures prices and related spreads and basis have changed. For example, the coking coal warehouse receipt cost (Tangshan Meng 5) decreased by 20 yuan/ton week - on - week, and the coking coal 09 - 01 spread increased by 8.5 [4] 7. Coking Coal and Coke Spot Prices - From June 4 to June 11, 2025, most coking coal and coke spot prices decreased. For example, the ex - factory price of Anze low - sulfur main coking coal decreased by 10 yuan/ton week - on - week, and the ex - factory price of Lvliang quasi - first - grade coke decreased by 70 yuan/ton week - on - week [5] 8. Other Information - Three rounds of price cuts for coke have been implemented, and there is an expectation of another round of price cuts this month. Throughout the year, the general direction of stable coal production and supply guarantee remains unchanged [6]