Nanhua Futures(SH:603093) Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-06-11 12:49Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Alumina: The market is under pressure due to inventory accumulation and falling spot prices. It is advisable to short at high prices in the medium to long term. The short - term (1 - 3 months) probability of the Guinea Axis mine remaining shut is high, but the long - term risk of permanent closure is uncertain [3]. - Electrolytic Aluminum: The fundamentals show sufficient supply and gradually weakening demand. Low inventory and continuous de - stocking support prices in the short term, with a possible short - term upward trend, but a bearish view in the medium term [5]. - Cast Aluminum Alloy: The cost is strongly supported, but there is an oversupply and expected weakening demand. The futures contract has a BACK structure. Short - term unilateral operations should be cautious, and positive spreads can be considered [5][6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Alumina - Price Forecast: The latest price is 2895 yuan/ton, with a monthly price forecast range of 2800 - 3200 yuan/ton. The current 20 - day rolling volatility is 0.4309, and the historical percentile (3 - year) is 0.9309 [2]. - Risk Management Strategies: For inventory management with high product inventory, short the main alumina futures contract at 3200 yuan/ton with a 75% hedging ratio; for raw material management with low raw material inventory, long the main alumina futures contract at 2700 yuan/ton with a 50% hedging ratio [2]. - Core Contradictions: The Guinea Axis mine has not resumed production, and port inventory shipping is restricted. The market is under pressure due to inventory accumulation and falling spot prices [3]. - Leveraging Factors: The Guinea government has revoked some mining licenses [4]. - Negative Factors: New production capacity is being put into operation, demand has no growth, profit recovery may lead to the resumption of production by shut - down enterprises, and spot prices have fallen in some areas [4]. Electrolytic Aluminum - Price Forecast: The latest price is 20250 yuan/ton, with a monthly price forecast range of 19000 - 20300 yuan/ton. The current 20 - day rolling volatility is 0.0977, and the historical percentile (3 - year) is 0.4114 [2]. - Risk Management Strategies: For inventory management with high product inventory, short the main Shanghai aluminum futures contract at 20100 yuan/ton with a 75% hedging ratio; for raw material management with low raw material inventory, long the main Shanghai aluminum futures contract at 19600 yuan/ton with a 75% hedging ratio [2]. - Core Contradictions: Supply is close to the industry ceiling, demand is weakening, and low inventory and continuous de - stocking support prices in the short term [5]. - Leveraging Factors: Low inventory and continuous de - stocking, tight spot supply in East China [5][8]. - Negative Factors: Terminal factory orders have decreased significantly, downstream operating rates have declined slightly, and there are signs of product inventory accumulation [5]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - Price Forecast: The latest price is 19400 yuan/ton, with a monthly price forecast range of 18500 - 19900 yuan/ton [2]. - Core Contradictions: The cost is strongly supported by tight scrap aluminum supply, but there is an oversupply and expected weakening demand. The futures contract has a BACK structure [5]. - Leveraging Factors: Tight scrap aluminum supply supports costs [5]. - Negative Factors: Expected weakening demand and industry over - capacity [5][6]. Market Data - Price and Spread: The prices and spreads of various aluminum and alumina contracts are provided, including Shanghai aluminum, London aluminum, and alumina contracts, as well as regional price differences and basis data [7][9][13]. - Inventory Data: The inventory data of aluminum and alumina, including Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipts, London Metal Exchange inventory, and alumina warehouse receipts, are presented [27].