Nanhua Futures(SH:603093) Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-06-12 11:04Report Summary Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided report. Core Viewpoints - This week, the second round of Sino-US economic and trade talks took place, causing significant macro-level disturbances to the market price, which trended upward with fluctuations. Based on current news, the positive impacts of this round of talks have mostly been realized, and styrene is gradually returning to its fundamental situation. Styrene port inventories remain relatively low, resulting in tight spot liquidity and a strong near-month basis. In the medium to long term, styrene supply is expected to recover while demand enters a slow season, presenting a pattern of near-term strength and long-term weakness [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Forecast and Hedging Strategies - The monthly price forecast for styrene is in the range of 6,800 - 7,600 yuan/ton, with a current 20-day rolling volatility of 29.40% and a historical percentile (3-year) of 85.8% [2]. - For inventory management, when the finished product inventory is high and there are concerns about styrene price drops, it is recommended to short styrene futures (EB2507) with a 25% hedging ratio at an entry range of 7,350 - 7,450 yuan/ton. Additionally, selling call options (EB2507C7500) with a 50% ratio at a range of 60 - 90 can reduce capital costs and lock in the spot selling price if the price rises [2]. - For procurement management, when the regular inventory for procurement is low and purchases are to be made based on orders, it is advisable to buy styrene futures (EB2507) with a 50% hedging ratio at an entry range of 7,100 - 7,200 yuan/ton. Selling put options (EB2507P7200) with a 75% ratio at a range of 30 - 50 can reduce procurement costs and lock in the spot purchase price if the price drops [2]. Core Contradictions - The market price is greatly affected by macro factors during the Sino-US economic and trade talks, but styrene is gradually reverting to its fundamentals. Port inventories are low, spot liquidity is tight, and the near-month basis is strong. In the long run, supply will recover and demand will enter a slow season, showing a near-strong and far-weak pattern [3]. Positive Factors - As of June 9, 2025, the styrene port inventory in Jiangsu was 80,000 tons, a decrease of 9,100 tons (-10.21%) from the previous period, indicating another round of destocking at the port [4]. - The raw material inventory of downstream styrene factories is low, and the restocking demand provides some support for the styrene price, with a strong basis for the June contract [4]. - Supported by macro-level positives and restocking by downstream factories, the price of pure benzene has risen. This week, Sinopec raised the listed price of pure benzene to 6,000 yuan/ton [8]. Negative Factors - As of June 9, the pure benzene port inventory in Jiangsu was 149,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 2.76%. European supplies are expected to arrive in mid to late June, and the import volume of pure benzene in June is still expected to be high [9]. - The previously shut-down units of pure benzene and styrene are gradually resuming operation, and the peak maintenance period has passed, leading to an increase in supply [9]. - There is news that the US has lifted restrictions on ethane exports, alleviating the supply contradiction at the raw material end [9]. - As of June 5, 2025, the sample inventory of Chinese styrene factories was 191,400 tons, an increase of 20,800 tons (12.16%) from the previous period [9]. Market Data - The daily change in the styrene basis shows different trends for different contracts, with some increasing and some decreasing [10]. - The prices of various products in the styrene and pure benzene industrial chains, including crude oil, naphtha, ethylene, pure benzene, and styrene, have different degrees of change compared to the previous day and the previous week [11][12]. - The profits of different products in the styrene downstream industry, such as EPS, HIPS, GPPS, and ABS, also show different trends [12].