JFL(600901) SINOLINK SECURITIES·2025-06-12 12:37Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company, setting a target price of 7.23 RMB based on a 1.62x PB for 2025 [3]. Core Insights - The overall leasing industry in China has a penetration rate of approximately 12%, significantly lower than that of developed countries, indicating substantial room for growth [12][20]. - The company benefits from a dual strategy of volume and price, achieving steady growth through a "manufacturer + regional" approach, with a receivable leasing balance expected to reach 127.3 billion RMB by the end of 2024, reflecting an 11.80% year-on-year increase [23][24]. - The company maintains a net interest margin of over 3.6%, with asset yield significantly outperforming peers, supported by strong bargaining power with small and micro clients [30][38]. - The risk control system is robust, with a non-performing loan ratio consistently below 1%, and a provision coverage ratio of 430.27%, well above regulatory requirements [45]. Industry Overview - The leasing industry is characterized by a low market penetration rate, with significant potential for growth as regulatory measures tighten and the market consolidates [20]. - Enhanced regulatory frameworks are expected to benefit high-quality companies that can adapt to compliance and risk management requirements [20]. Company Advantages - The company employs a "manufacturer + regional" dual-line strategy to achieve stable growth, leveraging a network of over 5,800 manufacturers and dealers to enhance customer acquisition and risk mitigation [25][29]. - The net interest margin remains resilient, with a downward trend in funding costs contributing to improved profitability [30][39]. - The company has established a comprehensive risk control framework, ensuring asset quality remains high and non-performing loans are kept at minimal levels [45]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are estimated at 5.826 billion RMB, 6.428 billion RMB, and 7.106 billion RMB, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of approximately 10.4%, 10.3%, and 10.6% [3][6]. - The forecasted net profit for the same years is 3.268 billion RMB, 3.613 billion RMB, and 4.003 billion RMB, with growth rates of 11.0%, 10.6%, and 10.8% [3][6].