Yanghe(SZ:002304) Huachuang Securities·2025-06-13 08:42Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expectation to outperform the benchmark index by over 20% in the next six months [6][21]. Core Views - The company is facing challenges but is actively adjusting its strategies. The management has acknowledged past operational shortcomings and is focused on enhancing its business model and market positioning [6][7]. - The company emphasizes the importance of returning to the essence of consumer goods, value creation, and rational development in the white liquor industry, despite short-term pressures [6][7]. - The company plans to strengthen its competitive advantages across different price segments and is launching various promotional activities to boost brand visibility and sales [6][7]. Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2024 is projected at 28,876 million, with a year-on-year decline of 12.8%. The revenue is expected to further decline to 23,409 million in 2025, before recovering to 24,586 million in 2026 and 26,416 million in 2027 [2][11]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 6,673 million in 2024, down 33.4% year-on-year, with a gradual recovery expected in subsequent years [2][11]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are estimated at 4.43 yuan for 2024, decreasing to 3.71 yuan in 2025, and then increasing to 4.08 yuan in 2026 and 4.64 yuan in 2027 [2][11]. Market Performance - The company has seen a 10% reduction in overall inventory in the first half of the year, with some regions experiencing inventory declines of over 30% [6][7]. - The company is focusing on enhancing its product offerings, including the launch of new products in the light bottle liquor segment, which is expected to become a significant revenue contributor [6][7]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is implementing a quota system to stabilize market order and is actively managing supply and demand to mitigate price fluctuations [6][7]. - There is a strong emphasis on optimizing marketing expenditures and improving the efficiency of promotional investments, with a shift towards more targeted spending [6][7].