山西焦煤（000983）：整合资源打造龙头，聚焦主业提质增效

Investment Rating - The report gives a cautious recommendation for the company [1] Core Views - Shanxi Coking Coal is one of the most influential coking coal producers in China, backed by the Shanxi Coking Coal Group, which is controlled by the Shanxi Provincial State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission. The company is focusing on resource integration and eliminating outdated production capacity to strengthen its leading position in the coking coal industry [3][11] - The company is actively expanding its business in electricity and coke, forming a diversified industrial structure that includes coal, electricity, coke, chemicals, and materials. Despite a decline in sales volume due to market conditions, the company maintains a stable cash flow from its electricity and heat products [4][25] Company Overview - Shanxi Coking Coal has a total market capitalization of 369.01 billion yuan and a circulating market capitalization of 306.1 billion yuan. The company has a total share capital of 5.677 billion shares, with a 52-week stock price range of 5.97 to 11.43 yuan [3][4] - The company has 17 mines with a coal resource reserve of 6.53 billion tons, with 16 mines currently in production and one under construction [23][24] Business Operations - The company reported a revenue of 452.90 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 18.43% year-on-year, and a net profit of 31.08 billion yuan, down 54.10% year-on-year. The decline is attributed to a reversal in the coal market supply-demand dynamics, leading to a significant drop in coal prices [37][45] - The gross profit margin for 2024 was 31.38%, which, while lower than previous years, remains competitive compared to peers in the industry [4][39] Future Outlook - The supply of coking coal is expected to continue to decline, with domestic production decreasing and imports remaining stable. The demand side is currently weak, but government efforts to stabilize the real estate market may lead to a recovery in demand [5][64] - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are projected at 424.52 billion yuan, 432.59 billion yuan, and 449.42 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.46, 0.58, and 0.64 yuan per share [5]