Zheshang Securities(SH:601878) ZHESHANG SECURITIES·2025-06-15 08:18Core Insights - Since June 13, 2025, the local conflict between Israel and Iran has boosted energy and gold prices, with significant implications for various asset classes [1][12] - Historical analysis of major wars indicates that the impact on assets is influenced by factors such as the scale of conflict, involvement of major economies, inflation environment, monetary policy, and post-war reconstruction [3][4] Group 1: Impact on Equity Markets - Geopolitical shocks tend to have a short-term impact on equity markets, with military and financial sectors benefiting relatively more [1][5] - Historical trends show that geopolitical risks do not directly dictate long-term stock market trends; instead, they may create buying opportunities if the original market trend is upward [2][20] Group 2: Oil Market Analysis - The price of crude oil is expected to be higher in the second half of the year compared to the first half, driven by the strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz, which accounts for over 25% of global maritime oil transport [1][5][13] - The potential for supply disruptions in the Middle East could lead to increased demand for oil from longer-distance suppliers like the US and Brazil [13] Group 3: Gold Market Insights - Gold prices are likely to reach new highs within the year due to the combination of geopolitical tensions and a trend towards "de-dollarization" [1][5][12] - The performance of gold is significantly influenced by its safe-haven appeal during times of conflict, with long-term trends dependent on US fiscal deficits and monetary policy [4][20] Group 4: Key Variables Affecting Asset Performance - The scale and duration of conflicts, involvement of major economies, inflationary pressures, and post-war economic recovery are critical variables that determine asset performance [3][4] - Historical conflicts show that if wars do not lead to long-term economic downturns, equity markets often rebound after initial panic sell-offs [4][20] Group 5: Dollar and Bond Market Dynamics - The US dollar typically strengthens in the early stages of geopolitical tensions due to its safe-haven status, while bond yields may initially decline [20][39] - The current dollar index is likely to remain weak, entering a downtrend cycle, with limited risk of significant declines within the year [40][42]