国泰君安期货煤焦周度报告-20250615

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The divergence between futures and spot prices persists, and the weak reality still suppresses the market. The emergence of a rebound signal for coal and coke prices depends on whether the market's expectation of future supply - demand loosening is revised. Considering that the increase in domestic production may narrow in the future, combined with the transmission of cost - side pressure from upstream coal mines, it is possible that event - driven disturbances will amplify the price volatility of coal and coke. However, due to the unchanged characteristics of fundamental pressure, the lack of endogenous momentum may keep prices in a dynamic bottom - seeking stage. The investment outlook is to shrink coking profits [6][7] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Coal and Coke Weekly Situation 3.1.1 Supply - In June, during the coal mine safety production month, domestic coal production and operation weakened. Many coal mines that had stopped production due to accidents had not resumed production, and environmental inspections in Inner Mongolia led to the shutdown of many private open - pit mines, with some mines experiencing short - term production cuts. The weekly output of sample coal mines decreased by 12.39 tons to 1238.52 tons, and the capacity utilization rate dropped by 0.86% to 86.17%. Overseas, on June 11, the Mandula port was closed for one day due to the Buddha's birthday. From June 9 - 12, the port was open for three days, with an average daily clearance of 176 vehicles, an increase of 43 vehicles compared to the same period last week [3] 3.1.2 Demand - The downward trend of hot metal production continued, but the decline slope was gentle. Coking enterprises continued to control procurement volume. However, as coal prices continued to fall, some enterprises appropriately increased the procurement of scarce coking coal varieties. Affected by environmental inspections this week, the operating load of some coking enterprises decreased, and the available days of raw material coal in the factories increased slightly. The inventory of raw material coal of sample coking enterprises increased by 0.19 days to 5.84 days [4] 3.1.3 Inventory - Downstream enterprises are actively reducing inventory, and future inventory replenishment will mainly be based on rigid demand. Due to general terminal demand this week, traders mainly focused on reducing inventory. Steel mills had limited overall shipments, and there was a strong expectation of poor steel shipments. Inventory may turn from decreasing to increasing, and hot metal production will continue to decline. Affected by this, steel mills were cautious in raw material procurement, mainly controlling the volume. The inventory of raw materials in the factories continued to decline. The available days of coke inventory of steel enterprises in the monitored sample points were 11.43 days, a decrease of 0.33 days compared to the same period last week [5] 3.2 Coal and Coke Fundamental Data Changes | Fundamental Changes | Coking Coal | Coke | | --- | --- | --- | | Supply | FW raw coal 866.29 (- 6.67); FW clean coal 440.65 (- 4.33) | Independent coking plants' daily average 65 (- 1.5); Steel mills and coking enterprises' daily average 47.2 (-) | | Demand | Hot metal production 241.61 (- 0.19) | Hot metal production 241.61 (- 0.19) | | Inventory | MS total inventory - 17.2; Mine + 13.5; Independent coking - 20.8; Steel mill coking + 3.1; Port - 0; Port + 4.4 | MS total inventory - 12.4; Independent coking + - 1.3; Steel mill - 3.0; Port - 8.2 | | Profit | Commodity coal 322 (- 15) | Average profit of coking enterprises 15 (- 24) | | Warehouse Receipt | Xiangning low - sulfur warehouse receipt 800; Lvliang Shenjiamao 871; Meng 5 warehouse receipt 828 | Rizhao quasi - first - grade coke warehouse receipt 1297 | [9] 3.3 Coking Coal Fundamental Data 3.3.1 Supply - Data on the supply of coking coal from aspects such as coal washing plants, monthly production, and Mongolian coal customs clearance are presented through multiple charts, including the production and capacity utilization rate of coal washing plants, monthly production of coking coal, and customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal at different ports [11][13][14] 3.3.2 Inventory - This week, the raw coal inventory of sample coal mines increased by 16.9 tons to 452.4 tons, and the clean coal inventory increased by 0.64 tons to 430.6 tons. The coking coal port inventory was 313.02 tons, an increase of 11.46 tons compared to last week. Inventory data of coking coal in coking plants, steel mills, and different regions are also presented through charts [22][26] 3.4 Coke Fundamental Data 3.4.1 Supply - The document shows the capacity utilization rate and production of coking plants and steel mills through charts, including the capacity utilization rate of independent coking plants and steel enterprises, and the daily average production of coke [36][38][41] 3.4.2 Inventory - Inventory data of coke in coking plants, steel mills, different regions, and the overall sample are presented through charts, including the inventory and available days of coke in coking plants and steel mills [45][46][50] 3.4.3 Demand - The demand for coke is mainly reflected in the hot metal production of steel enterprises, and the document also presents the supply - demand difference between coke supply and demand [53] 3.4.4 Profit - Data on coke profit, including the on - disk profit per ton of coke, the average profit per ton of independent coking enterprises, and the spot profit per ton of coke, are presented through charts [55] 3.5 Coal and Coke Futures and Spot Prices 3.5.1 Coking Coal Futures - The trading data of coking coal 2509 and 2601 futures contracts from June 10 - 13, 2025, including closing price, price change, trading volume, and open interest, are presented in a table [58] 3.5.2 Coke Futures - The trading data of coke 2509 and 2601 futures contracts from June 10 - 13, 2025, including closing price, price change, trading volume, and open interest, are presented in a table [61] 3.5.3 Coal and Coke Monthly Spread - The monthly spread data of coking coal (JM2509 - JM2601) and coke (J2509 - J2601) from February - May 2025 are presented through charts [66] 3.5.4 Coal and Coke Spot - The spot prices of different types of coking coal and coke are presented through charts, including the car - loading prices of different coking coal varieties and the summary prices of different types of coke [69] 3.5.5 Coal and Coke Basis - The basis data of coking coal and coke are presented through charts. On June 13, the basis of Mongolian coking coal was 53, and the basis of coke was - 53 [72][73]