Report Information - Report Title: Aluminum & Alumina Industry Chain Weekly Report [1] - Report Date: June 15, 2025 [2] - Analyst: Wang Rong [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - Aluminum market valuation is not low, but the downward fundamental drivers are not clear. Short - term trading is complex, and the recent strength may be due to spot - end warehouse receipt issues. The impact of pre - placed export demand on subsequent demand and the inventory inflection point need to be observed. [3] - Alumina market is in short - term sideways movement with narrowing fluctuations and a slightly downward center. The inventory inflection point is approaching, and the multi - empty game is affected by reasonable valuation. [4] Summary by Directory Aluminum - Price Movement: Shanghai Aluminum showed strong performance this week, breaking through the mid - May high, but further upward space needs observation. [3] - Micro - fundamentals: As of June 12, aluminum ingot social inventory decreased by 45,000 tons to 463,000 tons. As of June 13, the weekly output of aluminum plates, strips, and foils continued to decline, while as of June 12, the output of aluminum profiles increased slightly. Aluminum rod processing fees dropped significantly by 150 yuan/ton to 180 yuan/ton, and the downstream processing profit has fallen to a low level in the same period of previous years. [3] Alumina - Price Movement: The alumina futures price continued to test the 2800 level. With the continuous increase in weekly operating capacity and operating rate, the inventory inflection point is approaching. The market may have pre - selected to reduce long positions or switch to short positions. [4] - Micro - fundamentals: As of June 12, the all - caliber social inventory of Alumina according to Aladdin was 3.129 million tons, a decrease of 4,000 tons from the previous week; the all - caliber inventory of Mysteel increased for two consecutive weeks. The domestic spot price of alumina fell, and the decline has widened. [4] Trading - Term Spread: Shanghai Aluminum's term structure changed to C - structure, and Alumina's term B - structure expanded. [9] - Monthly Spread: The monthly spread of Shanghai Aluminum's near - term contracts widened rapidly. [10] - Position and Volume: Shanghai Aluminum's main contract position and trading volume increased, while Alumina's main contract position decreased and trading volume rebounded. [12] - Position - to - Inventory Ratio: Shanghai Aluminum's position - to - inventory ratio increased significantly, while Alumina's position - to - inventory ratio continued to decline and is at a historically low level. [18] Inventory - Bauxite: As of June 13, Mysteel's weekly imported bauxite port inventory continued to accumulate, increasing by 300,000 tons from the previous week. As of May, the bauxite port inventory and port inventory days in China according to Aladdin continued to show an upward trend. [23] - Alumina: This week, the total alumina inventory increased, with a week - on - week increase of 13,000 tons. Aladdin's all - caliber inventory decreased by 4,000 tons to 3.129 million tons as of June 12. [43][47] - Electrolytic Aluminum: As of June 12, the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum decreased by 45,000 tons to 463,000 tons, and the destocking rhythm accelerated. [53] - Processed Products: This week, the spot and in - plant inventories of aluminum rods decreased slightly, and the outbound volume increased significantly. [54] Production - Bauxite: In May, the domestic bauxite supply showed a slight recovery, but the latest Mysteel domestic bauxite production in May declined. Imported bauxite is still an important factor driving the growth of the total domestic bauxite supply. [62] - Alumina: The alumina capacity utilization rate increased. As of June 13, the national total operating capacity of alumina was 88.7 million tons, with a week - on - week increase of 500,000 tons. The domestic metallurgical alumina output this week was 1.718 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 11,000 tons. [69] - Electrolytic Aluminum: As of May, the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum remained at a high level. As of June 12, the weekly output of electrolytic aluminum according to Mysteel was 843,900 tons, a week - on - week increase of 400 tons. The proportion of molten aluminum increased seasonally. [75] - Downstream Processing: This week, the output of recycled aluminum rods increased by 2,060 tons week - on - week, the output of aluminum rods increased by 7,400 tons week - on - week, and the output of aluminum plates, strips, and foils decreased by 600 tons week - on - week. [78] Profit - Alumina: This week, alumina profit recovered. The profit of metallurgical alumina according to Mysteel was 451.5 yuan/ton. The profits of alumina in Shandong, Shanxi, and Henan all increased, and the profit performance in Guangxi was better. [89] - Electrolytic Aluminum: The profit of electrolytic aluminum remained at a high level, but the complex global macro - economic situation and uncertain factors interfered with market expectations. [96] - Downstream Processing: The processing fee of aluminum rods dropped significantly, and the downstream processing profit remained at a low level. [97] Consumption - Import Profit and Loss: The import profit and loss of alumina and Shanghai Aluminum increased. [105] - Export: In April 2025, the export of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products continued to rise, with a month - on - month increase of 12,000 tons. The export profit and loss of aluminum processing materials showed differentiation, and the export demand for aluminum products was affected by trade policy adjustments. [107][109] - Consumption Volume: The transaction area of commercial housing decreased, while the automobile production increased month - on - month. [116]
铝&氧化铝产业链周度报告-20250615