LI AUTO-W(HK:02015) ZHESHANG SECURITIES·2025-06-15 23:30Group 1: Key Recommendations - The report recommends Li Auto-W (02015) due to the resilient performance of the L series and the launch of the i8 model, which is expected to initiate a new product cycle [4] - The sales of the i series models are anticipated to exceed expectations, driven by enhanced charging infrastructure and product design that alleviates range anxiety [4] - Revenue projections for Li Auto from 2025 to 2027 are estimated at RMB 1700.09 billion, RMB 2255.53 billion, and RMB 2907.42 billion respectively, with net profit forecasts of RMB 89.89 billion, RMB 149.26 billion, and RMB 195.33 billion, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 11.9%, 66.1%, and 30.9% [4] Group 2: Industry Insights - The traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) industry is characterized by high cash reserves and stable profit growth, similar to the banking sector, with minimal impact from overseas situations [6] - The report anticipates a significant improvement in revenue and profit growth for the TCM industry in Q2 2025 compared to Q1, with continued growth expected in H2 2025 [6] - The report highlights a shift in market perception towards TCM, emphasizing its value in a context of trade protection and economic slowdown, suggesting that TCM's configuration value deserves attention [6] Group 3: Consumer Sector Analysis - The consumer sector, particularly in dining and beverage, is expected to recover, with leading brands in fast food and tea drinks projected to see positive same-store sales growth in Q2 and Q3 of 2025 [7] - The report notes that despite ongoing pressure on domestic consumption, the restaurant sector remains a relatively safe investment, with opportunities for valuation increases [7] - The analysis indicates that the market's focus on growth rates, regardless of low base effects, reflects a willingness to invest in growth stories within the consumer sector [7]