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烽火通信(600498):光通信筑基,长江计算突围国产算力新航道

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [10][11]. Core Viewpoints - The company has completed a technological breakthrough, entering a new phase of "technology conversion - profit release" with improved operational quality. Its subsidiary, Changjiang Computing, is projected to achieve nearly 6 billion in revenue from domestic computing in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate exceeding 100% over the past two years, potentially surpassing 10 billion in 2025 [4][10]. - The company has significantly increased its R&D investment to overcome supply chain challenges, with R&D expense ratios rising to 12.24%, 13.15%, and 13.27% from 2020 to 2022. The average salary of R&D personnel increased by 39% to 326,600 yuan in 2022 compared to 2019 [7][25]. - Changjiang Computing has become a key player in the domestic computing market, having adapted its AI servers to over 100 large models and achieving a top-three ranking in the Huawei Kunpeng ecosystem [8][10]. Summary by Sections From "Big" to "Strong": R&D Empowering Operational Quality Improvement - The company maintained steady growth from 2010 to 2019 but faced challenges after being placed on the U.S. Entity List in 2020, resulting in a 14.55% decline in revenue and an 89.55% drop in net profit [7][18]. - The management transition from 2020 to 2022 injected new vitality into the company, with a focus on overcoming technological barriers through increased R&D investment [21][25]. Riding the Computing Power Wave: Changjiang Computing Accelerates - In response to U.S. restrictions on computing power chips, the company has positioned itself as a domestic computing service provider, with revenue from domestic computing expected to reach nearly 6 billion in 2024 [8][10]. - The company has secured significant contracts in the financial sector and is expanding its market share among state-owned banks [8][10]. Full Chain Autonomy: Global Deep Sea Navigation - The company’s wholly-owned subsidiary, Fenghuo Ocean, is a rare global supplier of communication equipment with complete independent intellectual property rights, focusing on international submarine cable projects [9][10]. Investment Recommendations - The company is expected to see net profits of 1.03 billion, 1.34 billion, and 1.62 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 47%, 30%, and 21%, respectively, corresponding to PE ratios of 24x, 19x, and 15x [10].