行业研究 市场研究部 2026 年 3 月 23 日 通信行业周报（3 月 16 日- 3 月 22 日） 2026 年 3 月 16 日至 3 月 20 日，通信（中信）板块上涨了 1.71%，而 沪深 300 指数下跌了 2.19%，通信板块跑输沪深 300 指数 3.9 个百分 点。期间，通信业区间涨幅位列中信一级行业第 1 位，在 30 个中信一 级行业中表现领先。2026 年全年，通信行业累计上涨 7.84%，在中信 一级行业中排第 5 位，表现靠前。截至 3 月 20 日，中信通信行业 PE TTM 为 27.7 倍，处于 39.02%的分位数。 中信通信行业包括上市公司共 120 家，期间 17 家公司收涨，101 家公 司收跌，总体上跌多涨少。涨幅前 3 名分别为新易盛、中际旭创及平 治信息，跌幅前 3 名则分别为烽火通信、特发信息及精伦电子。 周度关注：OFC 2026 2026 年 3 月 15 日 - 19 日，OFC 2026 在美国洛杉矶会议中心举办。 本届 大会吸引了来自全球超 40 个国家和地区的 800 余家企业参展， 参会专业人士突破 3 万人次，参展规模创近五年新高。本届大 ...

Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the continuous improvement of AI network density and scalability through new products in the optical fiber and cable industry, highlighting investment opportunities in this sector [1][6][13]. Market Review - The communication sector outperformed the CSI 300 index by 4.29 percentage points during the period from March 16 to March 20, 2026, with a sector increase of 2.10% compared to a decrease of 2.19% for the index [17]. - Over the past 30 days, the communication sector rose by 6.2%, significantly outperforming both the ChiNext and CSI 300 indices [18]. - Year-to-date, the communication sector has increased by 8.5%, again outperforming the broader market indices [18]. Industry Data Updates - As of the end of 2025, China had 4.838 million 5G base stations, marking a net increase of 588,000 from the previous year, with 5G stations accounting for 37.6% of all mobile phone base stations [30]. - In January 2026, the domestic smartphone shipment was 22.866 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 16.1%, with 5G smartphones making up 86.9% of total shipments [31]. - The number of mobile IoT terminal users reached 2.888 billion by the end of 2025, with a net increase of 232 million users [33]. Key Company Developments - Corning showcased multi-core fiber and MMC connectors at the OFC 2026, which are expected to enhance data center network density significantly. Their multi-core fiber solution can increase fiber capacity several times while reducing cable quality by up to 70% and installation time by up to 60% [6][14]. - Yangtze Optical Fibre and Cable demonstrated new AI-oriented optical fibers and ultra-high-speed interconnection solutions, including a hollow-core fiber with a length of 91.2 km and a loss of 0.04 dB/km, aimed at future AI computing centers [6][15]. - The report suggests focusing on the optical fiber and cable sector due to improving supply-demand dynamics and the introduction of high-value products, with a recommendation to pay attention to leading companies like Yangtze Optical Fibre, Hengtong Optic-Electric, Zhongtian Technology, and FiberHome [6][15].

行业研究报告 北美光纤：北美AIDC需求释放， 扩产极慢导致供需紧平衡 行业投资评级：强于大市｜维持 李佩京/王思 中邮证券研究所 人工智能团队 中邮证券 1 1 发布时间：2026-03-18 摘要 核心观点 需求测： 供给侧： 风险提示：供给侧，海外厂商扩产节奏快于预期或中国厂商更快进入北美供应链；需求侧，云厂商Capex支出总量或节奏不及预期；技术侧，CPO、空心光纤等技术进步不及预期或技术替 代超预期；宏观局势风险等 2 近年来全球光纤光缆市场处于低谷周期，2025年起需求复苏，CRU预计2026年全球需求总量将达5.77亿芯公里，同比增长5%，其中北美需求占比超过25%，同比增速+17%； Ainvest预计生成式 AI 驱动的数据中心所需光纤数量是传统数据中心网络的10倍以上，CRU预计AI有望推动数据中心内部与DCI两大场景下的光纤光缆需求；从2024年占比不到5%、提升 至2027年的35%；按应用方向划分，面向AI应用的光缆需求在 2024 年将同比增长138%，并预计在2025年增长77%；到2029年五年复合年增长率将达到 26%，远超非 AI 应用。 我们预计，向外扩展 (Scale- ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the optical fiber and cable industry, emphasizing a new upward cycle driven by AI [4]. Core Insights - The current cycle is characterized by a structural change in demand driven by AI and drone applications, leading to a significant increase in optical fiber consumption [2][19]. - The supply side is constrained due to the long production cycle of optical preforms, which takes 18-24 months, resulting in a rigid supply environment [2][14]. - The report highlights the emergence of drones as a new consumption market for optical fibers, transforming them from infrastructure components to consumables [2][44]. Summary by Sections Investment Rating - The report suggests focusing on leading companies in the optical fiber and cable sector, such as Yangtze Optical Fibre and Cable Joint Stock Limited Company (6869.HK), Hengtong Optic-Electric, Zhongtian Technology, and FiberHome Technologies [2]. Demand Dynamics - AI-driven data centers (AIDC) are expected to significantly increase optical fiber demand, with projections indicating that AIDC fiber demand will rise from 5% in 2024 to 30% by 2027 [21][22]. - The demand for optical fibers in AI data centers is projected to reach approximately 53 million core kilometers annually by 2026, driven by the expansion of cloud service providers (CSPs) [22][39]. Supply Constraints - The global optical fiber production capacity is highly concentrated, with over 60% located in China, and new supply is expected to remain scarce due to cautious expansion strategies [2][54]. - The report estimates a supply-demand gap of 6% in 2026, which is expected to widen to 15% by 2027, indicating a tightening market [2][51]. Price Dynamics - The report notes that the current price increases are not merely cyclical but are driven by a fundamental shift in demand and supply constraints, leading to a "supply-demand gap price increase" [19][27]. - The price elasticity of optical fibers is expected to be greater than in previous cycles due to the rigid supply constraints and the inability to quickly respond to demand changes [14][18]. Key Companies - The report identifies key players in the optical fiber and cable industry, including Yangtze Optical Fibre and Cable Joint Stock Limited Company, Hengtong Optic-Electric, Zhongtian Technology, and FiberHome Technologies, as potential investment opportunities [2][8].

证券代码：600498 证券简称：烽火通信 公告编号：2026-008 烽火通信科技股份有限公司 关于终止参与投资设立基金合伙企业的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示： | 投资标的名称 | 湖北烽火创业投资基金合伙企业（以下简称"烽火 创业投资基金"） | | | --- | --- | --- | | 投资金额（万元） | 37,700 | | | 投资进展情况 | 完成 交易要素变更 | √终止 | | 特别风险提示（如有） | 基于当前相关工作进展，并综合公司战略发展规划 等因素考虑，公司终止本次投资。 | | 特此公告。 烽火通信科技股份有限公司董事会 2026 年 3 月 14 日 一、对外投资基本情况 2025 年 12 月 25 日，公司召开第九届董事会第十一次临时会议，审议通过 了《烽火通信科技股份有限公司关于拟参与投资设立基金合伙企业暨关联交易的 议案》，拟与联通战新私募股权投资基金（武汉）合伙企业(有限合伙)、武汉光 创新兴技术一期创业投资基金合伙企业（有限合伙）、湖北 ...

Investment Rating - The report suggests focusing on investment targets with large market space, high barriers, and high performance elasticity, particularly in sectors expected to experience high growth such as new aviation equipment, missiles, unmanned equipment, military trade, domestic large aircraft, gas turbines, and commercial aerospace [5][30]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the military industry is driven by three macro factors: national defense policy, geopolitical environment, and domestic military expenditure, indicating an upward trend for the industry [2][31]. - It emphasizes the structural characteristics of traditional equipment showing steady growth while new combat power equipment is expected to see high growth, with military trade and civil-military integration opening up growth ceilings for military enterprises [2][30]. - The analysis of the military industry from 2020 to 2025 indicates that significant price inflation in certain segments, driven by equipment upgrades and increased usage, has led to substantial profit elasticity [1][23]. Summary by Sections Review of Military Industry Trends - The report reviews the military industry from 2020 to 2025, noting that the growth was primarily driven by national defense policies and the release of new equipment, leading to a "Davis double-click" market dynamic [14][16]. - It also discusses the impact of geopolitical events, such as the Russia-Ukraine war, on military stock performance, particularly in the U.S. market, where military stocks have seen significant valuation increases despite not achieving rapid growth in fundamentals [25][26]. Key Sectors to Watch - The report identifies key sectors to focus on, including: - **Aviation New Equipment**: Emphasizing the importance of new models and increased usage [8]. - **Missiles**: Highlighting the potential for high elastic growth due to low baselines and strong consumption attributes [8]. - **Unmanned Equipment**: Noting the maturation of China's unmanned equipment industry and its expected high growth during the 14th Five-Year Plan [8]. - **Military Trade**: Recognizing military trade as a significant growth driver for established military enterprises [8]. - **Domestic Large Aircraft**: Indicating that the large aircraft industry is entering a period of accelerated development [8]. - **Gas Turbines**: Focusing on the high demand driven by data center electricity needs [9]. - **Commercial Aerospace**: Identifying it as a super track with significant growth potential [9]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends identifying investment targets that are positioned in high-growth sectors with large market potential and high barriers to entry, ensuring that these companies can benefit from the overall industry growth [5][30]. - It suggests focusing on companies with strong market positions and high performance elasticity, particularly those involved in high-demand segments such as military AI, unmanned systems, and commercial aerospace [5][30].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The aerospace industry has been explicitly identified as a "pillar industry" in the government work report dated March 5, marking a significant recognition of its importance in the national economic strategy [1] - The report emphasizes the acceleration of satellite internet development, further solidifying aerospace and satellite internet as key focus areas during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [1] Core Insights and Arguments - The government report highlights the need for high-level technological self-reliance and strength, indicating a strategic shift towards enhancing domestic capabilities in critical technology sectors [1] - A "green channel" mechanism for listing financing and mergers and acquisitions for key technology enterprises is proposed, which could facilitate faster capital access and growth for companies in the aerospace sector [1] Investment Opportunities - The commercial aerospace sector is experiencing accelerated growth, with a focus on reusable rockets and other catalysts driving industry momentum [2] - Key industry players and investment targets have been identified across various segments of the aerospace supply chain: - **Rocket Launch**: Guojijiang Engineering, Chaojie Co., Gaohua Technology - **Baseband Routers**: Zhenlei Technology, Xinke Mobile, Fenghuo Communication, Shanghai Hantong, Fudan Microelectronics (FPGA), Nanjing Panda - **Phased Array and RF**: Zhenlei Technology, Chengchang Technology, Tongyu Communication, Canqin Technology, Aerospace Huanyu, Guobo Electronics - **Satellite Platforms**: Guojijiang Engineering, Aerospace Zhizhuang, Qianzhao Optoelectronics, Tianyin Electromechanical, Zhimingda - **Information Encoding**: Jiayuan Technology - **Ground Stations**: Zhenyou Technology, Xinke Mobile - **Satellite Terminals**: Haige Communication, Xinwei Communication, Mengsheng Electronics - **Satellite Testing**: Xice Testing, Sikrui [2] Additional Important Insights - The emphasis on the aerospace industry as a pillar suggests potential government support and funding, which could lead to increased investment and innovation in this sector [1] - The identification of specific companies within the supply chain indicates a strategic approach to investment, focusing on firms that are likely to benefit from government initiatives and industry growth [2]

Core Viewpoint - The tightening of export controls on germanium and the ongoing supply shortage of upstream materials are expected to support the steady rise in optical fiber prices, driven by increased demand from AI infrastructure development, which may enhance the overall industry outlook [1][4]. Group 1: Supply Constraints - The export control on germanium, a critical dopant for optical fiber preform, is leading to a tightening supply in the upstream market [2][3]. - The global proven reserves of germanium are approximately 8,600 tons, with the United States holding 45% and China 41% of these reserves [1][2]. - The production cycle for optical preforms is lengthy, typically taking 1.5 to 2 years to reach stable mass production, contributing to the ongoing supply gap [3]. Group 2: Price Trends - The optical preform constitutes about 70% of the cost of optical fibers, and the rising costs of upstream materials, including germanium, are expected to further support price increases [3]. - The inability of optical preform production capacity to quickly respond to demand is leading to a persistent supply gap, reinforcing the upward price trend [3]. Group 3: Demand Growth - The optical fiber industry is entering a growth phase, driven by surging demand from AI data centers and international markets, particularly for specialized optical fibers [4]. - According to CRU reports, global demand for optical fibers and cables is projected to grow by 4.1% year-on-year by 2025, with data center demand expected to increase by 75.9% [4]. - Chinese optical fiber manufacturers are expanding their international presence, securing contracts in regions such as the Middle East, Latin America, and Europe, which enhances their competitive position [4].

【ZX航空航天】每日一call，坚定看好烽火通信260303 我们认为光纤涨价或可持续至明年，主要因为：1）需求端：无人机等超预期变化，致使657A2需求大增的同时挤 压652D等单模光纤产能。 2）供给端 【ZX航空航天】每日一call，坚定看好烽火通信260303 我们今天线下调研了烽火 通信等公司，汇报几点核心结论： 1、光纤涨价超预期。 当前散纤报价仅当日具备效力，几乎每天都在新高，运营商集采也在顶着拦标价报价。 我们今天线下调研了烽火 通信等公司，汇报几点核心结论： 1、光纤涨价超预期。 当前散纤报价仅当日具备效力，几乎每天都在新高，运营商集采也在顶着拦标价报价。 价格：公司在652D光纤20元/芯公里价格带上能做到盈利，而当前散纤价格部分逼近70元/芯公里，#涨价部分几乎 均可兑现为公司利润。 产能方面，预计年内光棒产能将提升至3000吨+，为国内第二大。 3、星间激光：正如前期我们在产业链中全方位交叉验证的，后续民用场景的GW/垣信星座中，星间激光格局会发 生巨变，HW/烽火是最核心的公司。 我们认为光纤涨价或可持续至明年，主要因为：1）需求端：无人机等超预期变化，致使657A2需求大增的同时挤 ...

烽火通信 20260302 摘要 商业航天板块有望在 3 月后迎来新一轮行情，受益于 SpaceX 潜在 IPO 及国内火箭公司发射计划等多重催化，建议关注具备"抗通缩逻辑"的 传输链路与卫星电源环节。 传输链路核心驱动力来自数据量几何级增长，微波通信与激光通信是关 键技术路径。随着传输能力向 800G、1.6T 等更高等级演进，具备深厚 通信技术积累的厂商将更具优势。 烽火通信在激光通信领域已有布局，作为二级供应商价值量可观，市场 对其上星经验的担忧被过度强调，忽视了商业化阶段产业链开放带来的 机遇。 光纤光缆行业景气度显著走强，AI、光纤无人机等因素驱动需求增长， 价格持续上涨。烽火通信作为光纤"四大厂"之一，存在产能释放潜力， 估值有望重估。 国产算力需求边际改善，升腾芯片采购热度提升。烽火通信服务器代工 业务持续扩展互联网厂商客户，有望带来营收与利润增长。 综合评估商业航天、光纤光缆与国产算力三条主线，烽火通信均具备边 际变化，且三大方向均处于市场关注度较高区间，对标类似标的，公司 估值处于显著低估水平。 Q&A 近期商业航天板块的核心催化与行情节奏如何判断，重点应关注哪些环节？ 近期国际局势进一步强 ...