化工行业周报20250615:国际油价、蛋氨酸价格上涨,TDI价格下跌-20250616

Investment Rating - The report rates the chemical industry as "Outperform" [2] Core Views - The chemical industry has been significantly impacted by tariff-related policies and fluctuations in crude oil prices. Key areas of focus for June include safety regulations affecting the pesticide and intermediate sectors, performance volatility due to export dynamics, the importance of self-sufficiency in electronic materials, and stable dividend policies in energy companies [4][11] - The report suggests a medium to long-term investment strategy focusing on high oil prices, robust performance in the oil and gas extraction sector, and the growth potential in new materials, particularly in electronic and renewable energy materials [4][11] Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - As of June 15, the TTM price-to-earnings ratio for the SW basic chemicals sector is 22.21, at the 62.94 percentile historically, while the price-to-book ratio is 1.81, at the 12.56 percentile historically. For the SW oil and petrochemical sector, the TTM price-to-earnings ratio is 11.50, at the 21.43 percentile historically, and the price-to-book ratio is 1.22, at the 4.50 percentile historically [4][11] Price Changes - In the week of June 9-15, among 100 tracked chemical products, 23 saw price increases, 47 saw decreases, and 30 remained stable. The products with the highest weekly price increases included hydrochloric acid (up 31%), WTI crude oil, and methanol, while those with the largest decreases included liquid chlorine and TDI [10][27] Oil Market Insights - International oil prices saw significant increases, with WTI crude oil futures closing at $72.98 per barrel, a weekly increase of 13.01%, and Brent crude at $74.23 per barrel, up 11.67%. The report notes that U.S. oil production has increased, and demand for gasoline and distillates has risen [28] TDI and Methionine Prices - TDI prices have dropped significantly, with the average price at 11,300 CNY per ton, down 8.87% from the previous week. The report indicates that demand from downstream industries remains weak, with limited new orders [29] - Conversely, methionine prices have risen to 22.20 CNY per kilogram, up 1.05% from the previous week, driven by supply constraints and increased production costs [30]