HCNC(SZ:300161) Shanxi Securities·2025-06-16 09:19Investment Rating - The report has downgraded the investment rating to "Accumulate-A" [8] Core Views - The company is a pioneer in China's CNC technology industry and a leader in domestic CNC systems, focusing on high-end CNC system industrialization development [3][16] - The CNC system market is expected to return to high growth, with a projected market size of 15.8 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 17% [4][46] - The company has achieved a historical high in gross margin for CNC systems and machine tools, exceeding 41% in 2024, benefiting from high-end product structure [31] Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company adheres to a "one core and three armies" development strategy, focusing on high-end CNC system industrialization [3][17] - It has a strong background in technology, originating from Huazhong University of Science and Technology, with over 30 years of technical accumulation [3][16] Market Dynamics - The CNC system market is expected to grow significantly due to policy support and recovering downstream demand, with a projected market size of 15.8 billion yuan in 2025 [4][46] - The demand for high-end CNC systems is urgent, with significant room for domestic substitution, especially in aerospace and new energy vehicles [4][54] Financial Performance - The company forecasts net profits of 14 million yuan, 36 million yuan, and 64 million yuan for 2025-2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 125%, 164%, and 79% respectively [8] - The gross margin for CNC systems and machine tools reached 41.47% in 2024, an increase of 2.82 percentage points year-on-year [31] Product Development - The company has developed the Huazhong 8 high-end CNC system, achieving international advanced levels and facilitating import substitution [5][65] - The company is focusing on expanding its product structure and enhancing the proportion of high-performance and heavy-load products in its industrial robot business [5][31] Industry Outlook - The five-axis CNC system market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 16.6% from 2021 to 2027, outpacing the global market growth rate [4][55] - The domestic five-axis CNC system market is currently under 10% market share, indicating substantial growth potential in the context of increasing demand for high-end manufacturing [64]