中东地缘冲突升级，原油风险溢价回升

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the chemical industry [3] Core Viewpoints - The current Brent oil price of $73 per barrel reflects market concerns over geopolitical uncertainties but does not fully account for potential substantial disruptions in the crude oil market [2][33] - The report outlines three scenarios regarding oil supply and price movements based on geopolitical developments in the Middle East, particularly concerning Iran and the Strait of Hormuz [2][38] Summary by Sections Oil Price Scenarios - Scenario 1: If global oil supply remains unaffected, the market is expected to maintain a surplus, leading to a potential price drop, with Brent oil projected to range between $60-70 per barrel in the second half of 2025 [2][33] - Scenario 2: A significant drop in Iranian oil supply could reverse the surplus expectation, potentially raising Brent prices to around $80 per barrel in the short term, before gradually declining as OPEC and U.S. shale oil production increases [2][38] - Scenario 3: If the Strait of Hormuz is blocked, the market could face a supply shortage, pushing Brent prices to challenge $100 per barrel, with future price movements dependent on the reopening of the Strait and production adjustments by OPEC and U.S. shale producers [2][38] Geopolitical Context - The report highlights the escalation of conflict in the Middle East, particularly the recent Israeli airstrikes on Iran, which have raised concerns about Iranian oil supply and the stability of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global oil transportation [6][7] - Iran's oil production is projected at 4.68 million barrels per day in 2024, representing 4.65% of global oil production, making its stability crucial for the global oil supply [6][7] Supply Chain Dynamics - The report notes that the Strait of Hormuz is vital for global energy security, with an oil flow of 20.5 million barrels per day in the first half of 2023, accounting for approximately 26.9% of global maritime oil trade [21][27] - If the Strait is closed, alternative pipeline capacities are limited, particularly for Iran, which relies entirely on this route for oil exports [27][28]