全球资产配置跨资产观察周报：以伊冲突给全球资产带来哪些影响？-20250616

Group 1 - The conflict between Israel and Iran escalated on June 13, 2025, with Israel launching a large-scale military strike against Iran, targeting nuclear facilities and military assets due to perceived threats to national security [2][8]. - The military actions have led to significant market reactions, particularly in oil prices, with global crude oil prices rising to $75.29 per barrel, a 6% increase from June 12, reflecting market fears of supply disruptions [3][9]. - The conflict has raised concerns about the stability of oil supply from the Middle East, particularly affecting Iran's production capabilities, which are crucial to the global oil market [11]. Group 2 - The financial markets exhibited a clear divide following the conflict, with risk assets like stocks declining while safe-haven assets such as gold and the US dollar surged, with gold prices surpassing $3,400 per ounce [4][14]. - Despite the tensions, the likelihood of a large-scale war is considered low due to the support dynamics involving the US and Russia, suggesting that the conflict may remain contained [16]. - The impact on major asset classes is expected to be more short-term, with oil prices likely to remain elevated unless there is a rapid recovery in Iranian production or a diplomatic resolution [5][16]. Group 3 - In the equity market, the A-share index saw a slight decline of 0.25%, with sectors like metals and oil leading gains while food and beverage sectors lagged [18][19]. - The bond market experienced a decrease in yields, with the 10-year government bond yield falling by 1.1 basis points, indicating a flight to safety amid geopolitical tensions [22]. - Commodity prices showed mixed results, with gold and oil prices increasing, while base metals like zinc and copper saw declines [23].