M&G(SH:603899) ZHONGTAI SECURITIES·2025-06-16 12:44Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight (Maintain)" [3] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the high growth potential of domestic consumer products, particularly in the personal care sector, suggesting a focus on companies like Haoyue Care and Baiya Co. The report anticipates significant growth during the "618" shopping festival due to low base effects and new product launches [5][6] - The report highlights the trend of IP collaborations in the stationery market, predicting that the market size for IP stationery in China will exceed 12 billion yuan in 2023 and grow to 30 billion yuan by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate of over 15% [5][6] - The report recommends companies such as Sun Paper for their integrated advantages in cultural paper and pulp production, and emphasizes the potential for growth in the home furnishing sector due to ongoing subsidies and improving demand [6][5] Summary by Sections Market Overview - The report notes that the light industry manufacturing index decreased by 0.37% and ranks 16th among 28 industries, while the textile and apparel index increased by 0.05%, ranking 11th [10] - The report provides detailed performance metrics for various sub-sectors, with entertainment products increasing by 5.1% and home goods decreasing by 0.94% [10] Key Company Recommendations - Baiya Co. is recommended with a target price of 28.33 yuan, expecting EPS growth from 0.54 yuan in 2023 to 1.50 yuan in 2027 [3] - Haoyue Care is highlighted for its potential in the personal care market, particularly with the rise of domestic brands [5] - Sun Paper is continuously recommended for its expanding advantages in the cultural paper sector [6] Consumer Trends - The report identifies a shift in consumer preferences towards emotional resonance and social attributes in stationery products, driven by younger consumers [5] - The report also notes the increasing importance of online sales channels and the potential for growth in the second half of the year due to new product launches [5] Industry Data - The report tracks key industry data, including a 20.2% year-on-year increase in furniture retail sales from January to April 2025, and a 2.5% increase in apparel retail sales during the same period [51][60] - The report indicates that the furniture manufacturing sector experienced a revenue decline of 3.6% year-on-year in the first four months of 2025, with a profit drop of 32.2% [55]