Thinkon Semi(SH:688233) Guoxin Securities·2025-06-16 14:18Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform the Market" rating to the company for the first time [6]. Core Views - The company has shown significant growth in revenue and net profit, with a 1Q25 revenue increase of 81.49% year-on-year and a net profit increase of 1850.70% year-on-year [1][18]. - The demand for large-diameter silicon materials is recovering, and the company is expanding its silicon electrode orders [3][34]. - The company is well-positioned in the semiconductor industry, particularly in large-diameter silicon materials and silicon components, which are expected to drive steady growth in performance [4][34]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 1Q25, the company achieved revenue of 106 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 81.49% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 19.44% [1]. - For 2024, the company reported revenue of 303 million yuan, a year-on-year growth of 124.19%, and a net profit of 41.15 million yuan, reversing a loss of 69.11 million yuan in 2023 [2][14]. - The gross profit margin reached 39.68% in 1Q25, showing improvement from previous years [1][21]. Business Segments - The large-diameter silicon materials segment generated revenue of 174 million yuan in 2024, up 108.32% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 63.85% [2][26]. - The silicon components segment saw revenue of 118 million yuan in 2024, a remarkable growth of 214.82% year-on-year, contributing nearly 40% to total revenue [2][26]. - The silicon wafer segment reported revenue of 7.02 million yuan in 2024, down 14.98% year-on-year, primarily due to ongoing customer certification processes [2][26]. Growth Projections - The company is expected to achieve revenue of 498 million yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 64.4%, and net profit of 98 million yuan, reflecting a growth of 138.7% [30][34]. - Projections for 2026 and 2027 indicate continued growth, with revenues expected to reach 702 million yuan and 1 billion yuan, respectively [30][34]. Valuation - The report estimates a reasonable valuation range for the company between 58.8 billion yuan and 63.7 billion yuan, corresponding to a price per share of 34.59 to 37.47 yuan [4][34]. - The expected price-to-earnings ratio for 2025 is projected to be between 60 and 65 times [34][38].