Winner Medical(SZ:300888) Changjiang Securities·2025-06-17 02:42Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [14]. Core Insights - The company focuses on "cotton" as its core material, with a synergistic development of medical and consumer sectors, and both are expected to experience upward cycles starting in 2024 [8][22]. - The personal care industry is witnessing a shift towards online sales, with domestic brands leveraging innovation and marketing to capture market share [9][44]. - The sanitary napkin market is large and mature, with opportunities arising from changes in market dynamics, particularly driven by domestic brand competition and consumer awareness [10][58]. - The company has demonstrated strong growth potential, with a revenue CAGR of 19% from 2015 to 2024, driven by a 25% CAGR in consumer revenue during the same period [8][27]. Summary by Sections "Cotton" as Core, Upward Cycle - The company has established a strong management team since 2020 and is set to implement stock incentives in 2024, aiming for significant growth in both medical and consumer sectors [8][22]. - Revenue growth is supported by a CAGR of 19% from 2015 to 2024, with consumer revenue growing at 25% [8][27]. Supply and Demand Resonance, Personal Care Industry - The online penetration rate for personal care products has rapidly increased to 60%, with domestic brands innovating to meet consumer demands for health and quality [9][44]. - Douyin has emerged as a key platform for new brands, facilitating effective marketing and sales conversion [50]. Sanitary Napkin Market Restructuring - The sanitary napkin market is expected to grow to 105 billion yuan in 2024, with a CAGR of 4% from 2015 to 2024 [58]. - The market is transitioning from volume-driven growth to price-driven growth, with online sales expected to account for 32% of the market by 2024 [58]. R&D as Foundation, Differentiated Layout Promotes Alpha - The company emphasizes R&D to achieve product differentiation and competitive advantage, particularly in non-woven products [11][30]. - The sales efficiency of non-woven products is significantly higher than that of woven products, contributing to better profit margins [11][30]. Stock Price Review and Valuation Analysis - The stock price and valuation have shown upward trends since Q3 2024, reflecting a recovery in both consumer and medical sectors [12][27]. - Compared to other new consumer companies, the company maintains a favorable valuation and growth potential [12].