Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating to the company, with a target price of 633.95 HKD per share based on a PE of 40.0X for 2025E [5]. Core Views - The tea beverage market in China is expected to grow significantly, with a projected CAGR of 19.2% from 2024 to 2028, driven by increased penetration and consumption frequency [3][17]. - The company holds a dominant position in the market, with a 20.2% market share in the overall tea beverage sector and a 57.0% share in the sub-10 RMB price segment, indicating strong competitive advantages [3][29]. - The company's core strengths include a robust supply chain, strong brand recognition, and a focus on cost-effective products, which have helped maintain profitability even in a challenging market environment [3][5]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company, Mixue Ice City, is the leading brand in China's fresh tea beverage market, with 46,479 stores globally by the end of 2024, achieving a CAGR of 32% from 2021 to 2024 [2][33]. - The company went public on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange in March 2025, raising approximately 3.46 billion HKD, primarily for supply chain development [2][36]. Industry Analysis - The fresh tea beverage market in China reached a size of 211.5 billion RMB in 2023, with a significant growth trajectory expected due to increased consumer demand and market penetration [17][25]. - The competitive landscape is favorable for low-priced tea beverages, with Mixue Ice City being the clear leader, benefiting from consumer preferences for value [3][29]. Competitive Advantages - The company leverages its strong supply chain, with over 60% of its ingredients sourced in-house, allowing for cost control and quality assurance [3][5]. - The brand's marketing strategy, including the successful "Snow King" IP, has enhanced its visibility and consumer engagement, contributing to its market leadership [3][5]. Future Growth Prospects - The company plans to continue expanding its domestic footprint while also exploring international markets, particularly in Southeast Asia, where demand for fresh beverages is rising [4][5]. - The introduction of the "Lucky Coffee" brand aims to capture the growing coffee market, with plans to lower franchise entry barriers to accelerate growth [4][5]. Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E are 310.8 billion RMB, 353.2 billion RMB, and 390.2 billion RMB, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 55.0 billion RMB, 64.4 billion RMB, and 73.8 billion RMB [5][9].
蜜雪集团（02097）：供应链为基，平价现饮龙头走向世界