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洋河股份(002304):跟踪报告:以长期主义应对下行周期

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "OUTPERFORM" rating for Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery [2] Core Views - The company is responding to the down cycle in the baijiu industry with a long-term strategy, focusing on brand strength and product matrix to navigate challenges [3][4] - The recent ban on alcohol in official receptions is expected to accelerate the industry's transformation towards market-oriented and diversified operations [12] - The company has a strong multi-brand matrix with a significant proportion of medium- and high-end products, which positions it well against competitors [13] Financial Performance and Projections - The company is projected to have revenues of Rmb 25.5 billion, Rmb 26 billion, and Rmb 27 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits of Rmb 5.6 billion, Rmb 5.9 billion, and Rmb 6.4 billion [5][16] - The diluted EPS is expected to be Rmb 3.70, Rmb 3.92, and Rmb 4.22 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 [5][16] - The company has committed to a cash dividend ratio of not less than 70% of net profit for the years 2024-2026, with a total dividend payout of Rmb 7 billion in 2024 [5][16] Strategic Initiatives - The company is focusing on its core products, particularly the Hai Zhi Lan and Meng Zhi Lan M6+, and plans to launch new products to strengthen its market position [4][14] - There is a strategic emphasis on regional market penetration, particularly in Jiangsu Province and the Yangtze River Delta, with a focus on maintaining price stability [15]