YIWU CCC(SH:600415) Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2025-06-17 08:29Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [2][8]. Core Insights - The company is positioned as a comprehensive international trade service provider, focusing on digital transformation and global expansion, leveraging its core business in the Yiwu small commodity market [7][19]. - The company has shown resilience in exports despite tariff fluctuations, with a significant portion of its business not heavily reliant on the U.S. market, thus mitigating risks associated with geopolitical tensions [7][49]. - The integration of offline markets with online platforms is expected to drive new growth, with the upcoming global digital trade center set to enhance AI applications in the business [7][8]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue is projected to grow from 15,737 million yuan in 2024 to 30,946 million yuan by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 21.9% [6]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from 3,074 million yuan in 2024 to 6,345 million yuan by 2027, reflecting a CAGR of 18.1% [6]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from 0.56 yuan in 2024 to 1.16 yuan by 2027 [6]. Business Model and Market Position - The company operates over 6.4 million square meters of specialized markets, generating stable revenue through differentiated rental strategies [7][19]. - The launch of the Chinagoods B2B platform has seen rapid growth, with gross merchandise volume (GMV) increasing from 2.9 billion yuan in 2020 to 80 billion yuan by 2024 [7][8]. - The company’s payment platform, YiwuPay, is expected to exceed a transaction scale of 10 billion USD by 2026, enhancing its financial service capabilities [7][8]. Market Dynamics - The company benefits from a robust supply chain and diverse product offerings, which have contributed to its strong export performance, with Yiwu's exports growing at a CAGR of 13.1% from 2016 to 2024 [49][51]. - The report highlights that Yiwu's export structure has adapted to mitigate risks from tariff increases, with significant growth in exports to ASEAN, EU, and Belt and Road countries [7][49]. - The overall market sentiment in Yiwu remains positive, with key indices indicating improved market confidence and operational efficiency [55][56].