XGD(SZ:300130) Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2025-06-19 05:51Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [3][7]. Core Insights - The company is leading in overseas local acquiring among domestic A-share listed acquiring companies, with its overseas AIGC investments already generating positive returns [6][8]. - The domestic acquiring industry is expected to benefit from a strong price increase trend due to industry consolidation and regulatory changes [6][9]. - The company has achieved significant milestones in cross-border payment and local acquiring, including obtaining a rare Luxembourg PI license, which is the only one granted to a domestic A-share listed company in the past three years [6][8]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue (in million yuan) is projected to be 3,148 in 2024, with a growth rate of -17.2%, and is expected to reach 3,821 by 2027, with a growth rate of 6.5% [2]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders (in million yuan) is forecasted to be 234 in 2024, with a significant increase to 922 by 2027, reflecting a growth rate of 5.5% [2]. - Earnings per share (in yuan) are expected to rise from 0.42 in 2024 to 1.63 in 2027 [2]. Business Overview - The company's primary business segments include acquiring and value-added services (67% of revenue in 2024) and electronic payment products (30% of revenue in 2024) [16][18]. - The company has established a global payment service brand, PayKKa, to manage its overseas acquiring business, which is in the early stages of rapid development [16][18]. Industry Context - The domestic acquiring industry is undergoing a transformation, moving towards high-quality development after a period of rapid growth and subsequent adjustment [61][63]. - Regulatory changes have prompted a consolidation phase in the industry, which is expected to enhance profitability for leading players [61][63]. Valuation Analysis - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 34 billion, 36 billion, and 38 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with net profits of 7.4 billion, 8.7 billion, and 9.2 billion yuan respectively [7]. - The report suggests a valuation of 32x PE for 2025, leading to an estimated market capitalization of approximately 237 billion yuan, indicating over 45% upside potential from the current market value [7].