SCSF(SH:600779) CMS·2025-06-19 08:04Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company [1][7][3] Core Views - The management team is stable, and a performance culture is enhancing employee execution capabilities. The company emphasizes a self-driven approach during external fluctuations, viewing them as opportunities for growth [7] - The North China market is performing exceptionally well, with a significant increase in the number of distribution stores. The company plans to expand its market share through key projects and a robust distribution strategy [7] - Marketing strategies focus on emotional connections with consumers, with plans to introduce low-alcohol products and enhance new retail channels [7] - The company is committed to strict inventory control and cautious, sustained investment in brand building and channel expansion [7] - The projected EPS for 2025-2027 is 2.87, 3.02, and 3.21, respectively, with a corresponding PE ratio of 14x for 2025 [7] Financial Data and Valuation - Total revenue is projected to grow from 4,953 million in 2023 to 5,810 million in 2027, with a CAGR of approximately 4% [2][15] - Operating profit is expected to increase from 1,698 million in 2023 to 2,120 million in 2027, reflecting a steady growth trend [2][15] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to rise from 1,269 million in 2023 to 1,563 million in 2027, with a consistent growth rate [2][15] - The company’s current share price is 41.02 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 20 billion yuan [3][3] Key Financial Ratios - The projected ROE is expected to decline from 32.3% in 2023 to 20.9% in 2027, indicating a gradual decrease in return on equity [16] - The asset-liability ratio is projected to decrease from 47.8% in 2023 to 34.3% in 2027, suggesting improved financial stability [16] - The net profit margin is expected to improve from 25.6% in 2023 to 26.9% in 2027, indicating enhanced profitability [16]