Nanhua Futures(SH:603093) Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-06-19 09:37Group 1: Report Overview - Report Date: June 19, 2025 [3] - Report Title: Stock Index Daily Report, Stock Index Futures Daily Report [1][2] - Analysts: Wang Mengying (Z0015429), Liao Chenyue (F03120676) [3] Group 2: Market Review - Stock Index Performance: The stock indices closed down collectively today. For example, the CSI 300 Index closed down 0.82%. The trading volume of the two markets increased by 595.57 billion yuan. The stock index futures all declined with increased volume [4]. - Futures Market Details: The main contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM had intraday declines of -0.80%, -0.63%, -1.03%, and -1.16% respectively. The trading volumes were 117,508 lots, 56,937 lots, 105,878 lots, and 228,414 lots respectively, with a month-on-month increase. The open interests were 242,993 lots, 83,607 lots, 227,844 lots, and 336,516 lots respectively, also with a month-on-month increase [7]. - Spot Market Details: The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.79%, and the Shenzhen Component Index fell 1.21%. The ratio of rising to falling stocks was 0.15. The trading volume of the two markets was 12,506.24 billion yuan, with a month-on-month increase of 595.57 billion yuan [8]. Group 3: Important Information - Fed's Interest Rate Decision: The Fed announced its June interest rate decision early today, keeping the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4.25%-4.50% for the fourth consecutive meeting, in line with market expectations [5]. Group 4: Core View - Market Pressure: The Fed's latest interest rate decision to hold steady, along with Powell's hawkish remarks, led to a rise in the US dollar index, increasing external pressure. Coupled with the turbulent external situation and the escalation of geopolitical risks in the Middle East, the index was under pressure and oscillated downward today [6]. - Market Outlook: Currently, the index lacks a driving force and faces significant resistance to upward movement. However, the management is determined to stabilize the market, so the downside space of the stock index is limited. After the market digests the increased external pressure, it is expected to return to range-bound trading and wait for a new driving force [6]. Group 5: Strategy Recommendation - Strategy: Hold positions and wait and see [7]