Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious outlook for the A-share market, suggesting a barbell strategy with micro-cap and bank stocks performing steadily [6][10]. Core Insights - The A-share market has remained flat amid Middle East tensions, supported by the Lujiazui Forum, while H-shares lagged due to increased risk-off sentiment [1]. - Biotech and New Consumption sectors in Hong Kong have seen a sharp pullback after significant gains of 30-50% YTD, with the HS Biotech Index dropping over 9% in the past five days [2][3]. - The Lujiazui Forum has announced measures to support Shanghai as a global financial center, including the reopening of IPOs for unprofitable tech firms under new standards [10][11]. Summary by Sections A-share Market - The A-share market is experiencing a barbell strategy with micro-cap and bank stocks outperforming, while foreign participation remains light [6]. - Limited liquidity is driving small-cap beta, while deflationary pressures keep dividend plays attractive [7][8]. Hong Kong Market - The biotech and new consumption sectors have both declined after strong rallies, with notable sell-offs in stocks like CSPC and Innovent [2][3]. - The new consumption sector has seen significant drops in stocks such as PopMart and Laopu, attributed to profit-taking rather than clear negative catalysts [4]. Lujiazui Forum Insights - The forum emphasized credibility and global financial connections, with discussions on reopening IPOs for unprofitable tech firms and expanding QFII investment scope [10][12]. - AI and semiconductor companies are likely to be prioritized for new listings, with stocks in the growth tier marked with a "U" label to indicate investment risk [11]. Macro Economic Context - Retail sales showed strong performance in May, but sustainability is questioned due to potential payback effects in June [13]. - Property prices in 70 cities have continued to decline, with secondary market data indicating a drop of 5-15% over the past year [14]. Investor Behavior - Overall A-share flows indicate a selling trend, with long-only and hedge funds both showing net selling behavior despite the geopolitical tensions [18]. - Specific sectors like AI infrastructure are seeing renewed interest, with notable buying in companies like Zhongji Innolight and Eoptolink [17].
高盛交易台:中国市场反馈-港股大涨后回调;A股杠铃策略;陆家嘴论坛要点