Huaxi Securities(SZ:002926) HUAXI Securities·2025-06-19 15:28Market Overview - On June 19, the market showed no significant negative news, but both stocks and bonds adjusted, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling below 3400 points and the 10-year government bond yield approaching 1.65% [2] - The stock market exhibited strong defensive characteristics during the adjustment, with the Shanghai Composite Index, CSI 300, and CSI Dividend down by 0.79%, 0.82%, and 0.65% respectively [2] - The technology sector in China remained supported, with the STAR 50 index only declining by 0.54%, while the Hong Kong Hang Seng Technology index fell sharply by 2.42% [2] Bond Market Dynamics - The 10-year government bond yield rose by 0.4 basis points to 1.64%, while the 30-year government bond yield fell by 0.2 basis points to 1.84% [2] - The trading of 50-year government bonds became active, with yields on new bonds declining by approximately 13 basis points since May 29, indicating a significant interest in long-duration bonds [6] - The market is exploring structural opportunities due to a lack of a main trend, with the 20-year and 50-year bonds becoming targets for yield spread extraction [6] International Influences - The Federal Reserve maintained its policy rate at 4.25-4.50% during the June meeting, with a more hawkish internal view, as the number of officials expecting no rate cuts this year increased from 4 to 7 [3] - Following the Fed's decision, the yields on 10-year and 30-year U.S. Treasury bonds rose, although the adjustments were manageable, with neither yield breaking through 4.40% and 4.90% respectively [3] - The strengthening of the U.S. dollar has exerted pressure on precious metal prices, with gold prices entering a phase of fluctuation and decline, settling around 3370 USD per ounce [3] Domestic Monetary Policy - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) continued to provide support, with a net injection of 842 billion yuan through reverse repos, despite a slight increase in funding rates [4] - The current funding rates indicate a marginal increase, with overnight rates closing at 1.60-1.65% [4] - The market's liquidity situation is expected to stabilize, with the potential for further net injections from the PBOC [4] Equity Market Trends - The overall equity market experienced a significant decline, with the Wind All A index down by 1.20% and a trading volume of 1.28 trillion yuan, reflecting a 591 billion yuan increase from the previous day [7] - The decline in the market is attributed to escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly concerning Iran, which has heightened risk aversion among investors [7][8] - Despite the overall downturn, there remains a focus on technology sectors, with robotics and semiconductor stocks showing temporary gains [8]