京东入局OTA，撼动格局难度高于外卖，PLUS会员生态建设更具战略意义

Investment Rating - The report provides a "Buy" rating for companies in the OTA industry, including Ctrip, Tongcheng, and Meituan, indicating expected total returns above the industry average over the next 12 months [44]. Core Insights - JD's entry into the OTA market through the "Hotel PLUS Membership Plan" is seen as a strategic move, but the difficulty in disrupting the existing OTA landscape is higher compared to the food delivery sector [1][29]. - The report highlights the differentiated competitive landscape in the OTA industry, with Ctrip focusing on the mid-to-high-end market, Tongcheng targeting lower-tier markets, and Meituan leveraging local life services to drive hotel bookings [29][41]. - The financial impact of JD's hotel business is estimated to involve a subsidy investment of 2 to 7.5 billion RMB, which could significantly affect the profitability of existing OTA platforms [1][29]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - As of the end of 2024, there are 350,000 hotels and 17.64 million rooms in mainland China, with 54% being economy hotels and a rising trend in hotel chain rates, reaching 40% [4][12]. - The average room price for star-rated hotels has shown fluctuations, with a projected stabilization in the second half of 2025 [18][29]. Competitive Landscape - Ctrip's hotel revenue is projected to reach 18.4 billion RMB in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 13%, while Tongcheng's hotel revenue is expected to be 5.5 billion RMB, growing at 18% [29][31]. - The report notes that hotel business is the primary profit source for OTA platforms, with hotel monetization rates around 8-10% [29]. Financial Projections - The report estimates that if the monetization rate for hotels decreases by 1 percentage point, Ctrip's revenue and profit for 2025 could decline by 3% and 6%, respectively [1][29]. - The current price-to-earnings ratios for JD, Meituan, Ctrip, and Tongcheng are noted to be at historical lows, suggesting potential investment opportunities [1][29].