SF Holding(SZ:002352) Xinda Securities·2025-06-20 07:39Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company has shown significant growth in business volume, outperforming the industry with a 31.76% year-on-year increase in express logistics business volume in May 2025, exceeding the industry growth rate by 14.6 percentage points [2] - The company is expected to enter a period of investment returns, with a reduction in capital expenditures and an improvement in profit margins due to network integration [4] - The international business is anticipated to open a second growth curve, supported by the operational capabilities of the Ezhou Airport and an expanding global air network [5][6] Summary by Sections Business Performance - The company achieved a total revenue of 251.13 billion yuan in May 2025, reflecting an 11.34% year-on-year growth [2] - The express logistics business volume reached 1.477 billion pieces, indicating a robust growth trajectory [2] Financial Projections - The projected net profit for the company from 2025 to 2027 is expected to be 11.91 billion yuan, 14.26 billion yuan, and 16.85 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth rates of 17.1%, 19.7%, and 18.2% respectively [7] - The gross profit margin is projected to improve from 12.8% in 2023 to 14.8% by 2027 [8] Cash Flow and Investment - The company's free cash flow is expected to grow significantly, from 126.55 billion yuan in 2023 to 215.08 billion yuan in 2024, marking a 69.96% year-on-year increase [3] - Capital expenditures are projected to decrease, indicating a shift towards a return on investment phase [4] Market Position and Strategy - The company is transitioning into a comprehensive logistics leader, diversifying into express delivery, cold chain, and international logistics, with new business segments achieving market leadership [7] - The operational efficiency improvements through data analysis and route optimization are expected to enhance overall capacity utilization [2][3]