Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [1]. Core Insights - The company is expected to benefit from a recovering industry ecosystem and increased demand driven by delivery subsidies [5]. - The company has established a comprehensive supply chain across all 31 provinces in China, enhancing its operational efficiency and cost management [6]. - The product matrix is diverse, with a focus on innovation and international expansion, having entered eight countries and regions [7]. - Earnings forecasts indicate a recovery in performance, with projected EPS of 0.68, 0.86, and 1.12 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, alongside a corresponding PE ratio decline [8]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The ready-to-drink tea industry is experiencing a stabilization in pricing wars, leading to a concentration of market share among leading brands [5]. - The introduction of substantial delivery subsidies by major platforms is expected to significantly boost demand in the tea beverage sector [5]. Supply Chain and Operational Efficiency - The company has achieved nationwide supply chain coverage with 25 warehouses and over 300 temperature-controlled delivery vehicles, allowing for same-day delivery [6]. - The strategy of coexisting with franchisees aims to enhance efficiency and optimize costs, thereby stabilizing the company's gross profit structure [6]. Product Development and Market Expansion - The product lineup includes classic, seasonal, and regional offerings, with a strong emphasis on innovation, resulting in rapid sales growth for new products [7]. - The company has initiated overseas market expansion, with a focus on establishing an "international supply chain + local procurement" model, achieving profitability in international locations [7]. Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to recover from 4,918 million yuan in 2024 to 6,097 million yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 23.97% [11]. - Net profit is expected to rebound significantly from 472.18 million yuan in 2024 to 1,006.04 million yuan in 2025, indicating a growth rate of 113.06% [11]. - The company's PE ratio is forecasted to decrease from 26.69 in 2024 to 12.53 in 2025, suggesting improved valuation metrics as earnings recover [11].
茶百道（02555）：公司动态研究报告：供应链优势领航，关注经营底部反转