Guotai Haitong Securities(SH:601211) Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2025-06-22 09:35Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - This week, the spot price of live pigs showed a strong performance, with the price in Henan rising from 14.08 yuan/kg last week to 14.43 yuan/kg, and the national average slaughter weight decreasing by 0.17% week-on-week. The futures price of live pigs also had a strong oscillation, with the LH2509 contract closing at 13,895 yuan/ton, up from 13,790 yuan/ton last week, and the basis increasing from 290 yuan/ton to 535 yuan/ton [1][2]. - Next week, the spot price of live pigs is expected to remain volatile. The group's adjustment of slaughter volume has a significant impact during the off - season. Despite the group's weight - reduction plan, short - term retail investor reluctance to sell, active replenishment by secondary fattening groups, and the expectation of policy procurement support the price. The supply side is facing complex inventory situations, and the demand is in the off - season with limited downstream support. The policy of procurement provides a price floor, but it also complicates the de - stocking path. The core of the inventory cycle rotation in the second half of the year lies in the rhythm of the social circle [3]. - In the futures market, the LH2509 contract still has a short - term bullish sentiment. The short - term support level is 13,000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 14,500 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the opportunity of spread repair and stop - loss and take - profit operations [4]. Summary by Directory This Week's Market Review (6.16 - 6.22) Spot Market - The price of 20KG piglets in Henan dropped from 39.1 yuan/kg last week to 37.8 yuan/kg, and the price of live pigs in Henan rose from 14.08 yuan/kg to 14.43 yuan/kg. The price of 50KG binary sows nationwide remained at 1,621 yuan/head. The supply was tight as the group's incremental supply was limited and retail investors were reluctant to sell. The demand increased slightly compared to the beginning of the month but was further suppressed by rising temperatures, and the average slaughter weight decreased by 0.17% week - on - week [1]. Futures Market - The LH2509 contract of live pig futures had a strong oscillation, with a high of 13,900 yuan/ton, a low of 13,715 yuan/ton, and a closing price of 13,895 yuan/ton, up from 13,790 yuan/ton last week. The basis of the LH2509 contract increased from 290 yuan/ton to 535 yuan/ton [2]. Next Week's Market Outlook (6.23 - 6.29) Spot Market - The spot price of live pigs is expected to remain volatile. The group is reducing weight according to the plan, but retail investors are reluctant to sell, and secondary fattening groups are actively replenishing. The supply side is facing complex inventory situations, with accelerated inventory accumulation in the retail and secondary fattening sectors and more obvious incremental supply in the third quarter. The demand is in the off - season, and the downstream support is limited. The policy of procurement provides a price floor and stimulates further pressure on retail investors and secondary fattening, making the de - stocking path more complex [3]. Futures Market - The LH2509 contract price closed at 13,895 yuan/ton on June 20. The positive fat - to - lean price difference reduces the willingness of retail investors to sell in a concentrated manner. Secondary fattening is active, and the utilization rate of pens has increased. The group is de - stocking, and there is still short - term bullish sentiment. The short - term support level is 13,000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 14,500 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the opportunity of spread repair [4]. Other Data - This week's basis was 535 yuan/ton, and the LH2507 - LH2509 spread was - 560 yuan/ton [9]. - The average slaughter weight this week was 125.55KG, down from 125.76KG last week. In April, the pork output was 5.268 million tons, a 3.7% month - on - month increase, and in May, the pork import volume was 93,700 tons, a 16.17% month - on - month increase [12].