BOCIC(SH:601696) Bank of China Securities·2025-06-22 12:13Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - US retail data cooled in May, with the year-on-year increase in commodity retail data dropping from 5.0% in the previous month to 2.6%. The Fed's stance against inflation in the June meeting remained firm. The dot plot maintained the median forecast of two 25BP rate cuts this year, but the number of committee members inclined to two or more rate cuts decreased [2]. - The Middle East conflict reached a critical point. On June 21, the US attacked Iranian nuclear facilities. Iran's reaction could be the key to the short - term trends of the global energy and precious metals markets [2]. - The producer price index rebounded month - on - month. From June 16 to 21, the average wholesale price of pork decreased by 0.17% month - on - month and 17.78% year - on - year. The Shandong vegetable wholesale price index rose by 7.21% month - on - month and decreased by 0.69% year - on - year. In the week of June 13, the edible agricultural product price index decreased by 0.50% month - on - month and 5.62% year - on - year. Brent and WTI crude oil futures prices rose by 10.07% and 9.35% respectively on average month - on - month. The domestic cement price index decreased by 0.61% month - on - month, and the production material price index rose by 0.10% month - on - month and decreased by 9.83% year - on - year [2]. - From June 1 - 20, the average daily commercial housing transaction area in 30 large - and medium - sized cities tracked by Wind was about 244,000 square meters, compared with about 264,000 square meters per day in the same period in 2024 [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs High - Frequency Data Panoramic Scan - Includes data on US commodity retail and import year - on - year growth rates, Fed rate forecast dot plots, gold and crude oil spot prices, and high - frequency data weekly month - on - month changes [11][16][18]. - For high - frequency data weekly month - on - month changes, various indicators such as pork average wholesale price, edible agricultural product price index, and production material price index are presented with their current and previous values [18]. - High - frequency data panorama shows the year - on - year data of various indicators related to important macro - indicators, including LME copper spot settlement price, crude steel daily output, and PPI [19]. High - Frequency Data and Important Macro - Indicator Trend Comparison - Compares the year - on - year changes of various price indices (such as commodity price index, rebar price index) with PPI industrial year - on - year, as well as copper spot price year - on - year with industrial added value year - on - year (+PPI year - on - year) [24][29]. Important High - Frequency Indicators in the US and Europe - Covers US weekly economic indicators and actual economic growth rates, US initial jobless claims and unemployment rates, US same - store sales growth rates and PCE year - on - year, and Chicago Fed financial conditions index [85][87]. Seasonal Trends of High - Frequency Data - Analyzes the seasonal trends (month - on - month increases) of indicators such as crude steel (decadal) daily output, production material price index, and China's commodity price index [97][104]. High - Frequency Traffic Data in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen - Presents the year - on - year changes in subway passenger traffic in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen [155][156].