CGWS(SZ:002939) Great Wall Securities·2025-06-22 12:29Group 1 - The report highlights that the A-share market experienced fluctuations driven by "geopolitical risks and policy games," with the Shanghai Composite Index declining by 0.52%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 1.16%, and the ChiNext Index by 1.66% during the week of June 16-20, 2025 [1][8] - The report notes that the recent Lujiazui Financial Forum emphasized two main themes: optimizing the cross-border payment system and improving the financing environment for technology enterprises, maintaining a "small steps, quick runs" approach without announcing any overly unexpected policies [1][9] - The report indicates that the U.S. Federal Reserve maintained its hawkish stance during the June FOMC meeting, keeping the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4.25%-4.50% and signaling the need for more data to confirm inflation's return to the 2% target before considering rate cuts [1][9] Group 2 - The report discusses the current U.S. economic situation, indicating a "quasi-stagflation" environment characterized by weakened growth momentum and persistent inflation, with the GDP growth forecast for 2025 lowered to 1.4% and core PCE inflation expectations raised to 3.1% [2][17] - It highlights the increasing fiscal burden due to high interest rates and rising import costs from tariff policies, which exacerbate inflation without effectively increasing fiscal revenue, potentially leading to a long-term scenario of low growth and high inflation in the U.S. economy [2][17] - The report suggests that in the context of China's stable macro policy, sector allocation should focus on industry profit certainty to cope with external shocks and increased market volatility, with a particular emphasis on supporting the technology sector [3][18] Group 3 - The report identifies fire power generation as a sector to watch, citing its dual logic of high dividend defense and profit improvement expectations, with coal prices continuing to decline and summer peak electricity demand increasing [3][18] - It discusses stablecoins as a potential tool to maintain the strength of the U.S. dollar, with the global promotion of stablecoins indirectly expanding dollar demand, while China is building an offshore RMB stablecoin ecosystem to promote RMB internationalization [4][19] - The report notes that the Hang Seng Technology Index is currently in a "top and bottom" oscillation pattern, with leading companies benefiting from both consumption stimulus policies and technology self-reliance strategies, making it a sector of strong interest [4][19]