Marvell上调预期，拉动海外算力链持续上涨

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Recommended [5] Core Insights - Marvell has raised its expectations for data center capital expenditures (Capex) and ASICs, predicting that by 2028, data center Capex will exceed $1 trillion. The market size for data centers is now expected to reach $94 billion by 2028, a 26% increase from the previous estimate of $75 billion made in April 2024. The guidance for the custom computing chip market (XPU and XPU supporting chips) has been raised by 37% [1][9] - The demand for computing power has seen a leap in growth over the past two years, driven by the rise of computing chips. Despite concerns over sovereign computing and declining capital expenditures, companies like OpenAI continue to show rapid revenue growth and an increase in commercial paying customers. Major tech firms such as Oracle and Meta have also raised their Capex expectations, indicating strong overseas AI demand, particularly from new enterprise clients [2][11] - The ASIC and GPU competitive landscape is benefiting from support from overseas CSP manufacturers, leading to an upward revision in market size expectations and positively impacting the PCB industry chain. The computing sector is expected to maintain strong underlying demand and valuation support, with high-speed optical modules still undervalued [2][13] Summary by Sections Section 1: Market Expectations - Marvell's updated forecast indicates that the overall data center Capex will maintain a CAGR of 51%, reaching $593 billion by 2025 and $1.022 trillion by 2028. The four major CSPs in the U.S. are expected to see their Capex grow at a CAGR of 46% from 2023 to 2025, reaching $327 billion by 2025 [7][9] Section 2: Investment Recommendations - Recommended beneficiaries in the computing sector include: - High-speed optical modules: NewEase, Zhongji Xuchuang, Tianfu Communication - CPO-related beneficiaries: Taicheng Light, Yuanjie Technology - PCB-related beneficiaries: Shenghong Technology, Hude Electronics - Telecom operators: China Telecom, China Mobile, China Unicom - Related service providers: Invec, New Ray Energy, and third-party computing leasing firms like Guanghuan New Network, Aofei Data, and Data Port [2][3][14]