Sinocare(SZ:300298) Changjiang Securities·2025-06-22 15:23Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [14] Core Viewpoints - Sanofi Bio is positioned as a leading domestic blood glucose monitoring company, with its BGM business maintaining steady growth and expected to capture nearly 50% of the retail market share by the end of 2024 [4][9] - The company launched its third-generation CGM technology in 2023, which is anticipated to become a significant growth driver alongside its existing BGM business [4][10] - The CGM market is characterized by large scale and high barriers to entry, with trends indicating domestic substitution and increased penetration rates [10][11] - The company has established a strong channel advantage and brand foundation in the domestic blood glucose monitoring sector, which is expected to facilitate rapid market capture in the short term and sustained growth through product iterations in the medium to long term [4][12] - Internationally, the company's CGM products have been launched in multiple countries, with plans to leverage overseas subsidiaries to penetrate mainstream markets in Europe and the US [4][12] Summary by Sections Company Overview - Sanofi Bio has been deeply engaged in the blood glucose monitoring field for 20 years, with a stable growth in its BGM business. The global BGM market has shown stable growth rates of 5%-7% from 2016 to 2022, with expectations for continued single-digit growth due to increasing diabetes patient data and significant room for penetration [9][46] Market Position - By the end of 2024, Sanofi's blood glucose monitoring products are expected to hold nearly 50% of the domestic retail market share, with over 22 million users and extensive coverage across hospitals and pharmacies [9][55] - The company achieved top sales in the blood glucose category on major e-commerce platforms during promotional events, indicating strong market performance [9][55] CGM Market Insights - The global CGM market has grown from $1.7 billion in 2015 to $5.7 billion in 2020, with a CAGR of 28.2%. The market share of CGM is expected to increase significantly, indicating a trend towards CGM replacing BGM [10][73] - In China, the CGM penetration rate is significantly lower than in the US and Europe, suggesting substantial growth potential as domestic products gain approval and market share [11][79] Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 432 million, 542 million, and 658 million yuan from 2025 to 2027, with corresponding P/E ratios of 27, 22, and 18 times [12]