JD(US:JD) China Post Securities·2025-06-23 07:44Economic Overview - The economic climate in June remains stable, with industrial demand slightly declining while consumption and exports show resilience, and real estate sales maintain high activity levels[1] - The expected economic growth rate for the second quarter is around 5.2%[1] Real Estate Market - Real estate sales in 30 major cities have turned positive year-on-year, with a daily average transaction area of 24.38 million square meters, a 10.69% increase compared to May[12] - First-tier cities are expected to stabilize housing prices by the end of the year, while second-tier cities may stabilize by June next year[2] Consumer Activity - The "618" shopping festival, combined with the "trade-in" policy, has significantly boosted consumption, with online retail sales reaching nearly 2 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of approximately 9.8%[28] - However, some regions are experiencing a temporary decline in government subsidies, which may lead to fluctuations in retail sales growth[2] Industrial Demand - Industrial demand is showing signs of recovery, with the rebar production rate increasing to 42.19% in June, although prices remain low due to ample supply[19] - The average price of rebar in June is 3,385 yuan per ton, a decrease of 2.28% compared to May[19] Price Index Trends - The Producer Price Index (PPI) is expected to continue its decline, with a projected year-on-year decrease of around 3.4% in June, marking 32 months of negative growth[39] - The PPI's ongoing decline is a significant factor affecting corporate profitability[48] Government Policy and Market Sentiment - The central bank is expected to maintain a moderately loose monetary policy, while geopolitical risks are suppressing global risk appetite[4] - The issuance of new special bonds in June has slowed, with a total of 568.53 billion yuan, a decrease of 77.65% from May[23]