农药专题：供给优化，部分小品种或率先迎来拐点

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [13] Core Viewpoints - Although the prices of the three major pesticides are still fluctuating at the bottom, with continuous optimization of supply and steady growth in terminal demand, some small varieties may see a turning point first. It is recommended to pay attention to pesticide companies like Yangnong Chemical, which is a domestic leader, with its Huludao Phase I project expected to be fully operational by Q3 2025 [2][11][63] Summary by Sections Overall Market Conditions - The overall pesticide raw material prices have been fluctuating at the bottom since July 2023, with significant inventory reduction observed. As of June 13, 2025, the raw material price index reported 74.2 points, a year-on-year decrease of 4.0% and a month-on-month increase of 1.9% [18][20] Supply and Demand Improvements - The supply situation is improving, and some small varieties may see a turning point. For example, the price of Bacillus amyloliquefaciens has steadily increased to 30,000 yuan/ton by June 15, 2025, a year-on-year increase of 68.6% [24][25] - The price of Acetochlor has risen from 84,000 yuan/ton in April to 145,000 yuan/ton by June 15, 2025, due to supply disruptions [29][33] - The price of Chlorpyrifos has increased due to rising raw material costs, with the price of its upstream raw material, Trichloroacetyl chloride, rising from 6,800 yuan/ton to 8,200 yuan/ton [39][42] Specific Product Insights - The demand for Abamectin and Methomyl is steadily increasing, with a significant number of registration certificates in China. The production capacity is concentrated among a few companies, with China being the largest producer and exporter globally [48][51] - The supply of Chlorantraniliprole has been affected by an explosion at a chemical plant, leading to a price increase from 225,000 yuan/ton to 305,000 yuan/ton by June 15, 2025 [56][59] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on pesticide companies with prices at the bottom and potential for upward movement, particularly Yangnong Chemical, which is expected to benefit from the upcoming production ramp-up [11][63]