Nanhua Futures(SH:603093) Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-06-23 11:08Report Overview - Report Name: Nanhua Coal and Coking Industry Risk Management Daily Report - Date: June 23, 2025 - Research Team: Nanhua Research Institute, Black Research Team 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply-demand contradiction of coking coal has eased, and with the support of geopolitical conflicts on energy products, the futures market may continue to rise in the short term. However, downstream enterprises generally lack confidence in future demand, and this rebound has not boosted the sentiment in the spot market. The inventory of upstream coking coal mines is continuously accumulating, and the pressure on spot sales remains high. The probability of an immediate price increase after the fourth round of price cuts is low. Unilateral operations are advised to wait and see, and the industry can focus on hedging opportunities at low basis levels [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Forecast and Risk Management Strategies - Price Range Forecast (Monthly): The forecast price range for coking coal is 700 - 850, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 38.07% and a historical percentile of 75.79%. The forecast price range for coke is 1320 - 1450, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 26.36% and a historical percentile of 53.39% [2]. - Risk Management Strategies: For those looking to lock in selling prices due to concerns about price drops when steel mills propose price cuts for coke or when coking coal spot inventory is high, it is recommended to short the J2509 coke contract or the JM2509 coking coal contract. The suggested hedging ratios and entry intervals are provided [2]. 3.2 Black Warehouse Receipt Daily Report | Commodity | Unit | June 23, 2025 | June 20, 2025 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rebar | Tons | 18,221 | 18,221 | 0 | | Hot - Rolled Coil | Tons | 75,537 | 77,312 | - 1,775 | | Iron Ore | Lots | 3,000 | 3,000 | 0 | | Coking Coal | Lots | 0 | 100 | - 100 | | Coke | Lots | 90 | 90 | 0 | | Ferrosilicon | Sheets | 12,535 | 13,832 | - 1,297 | | Silicomanganese | Sheets | 94,951 | 95,545 | - 594 | [3] 3.3 Market Analysis - Positive Factors: High molten iron production, stable steel mill profitability, and the absence of obvious off - season characteristics in the steel market [4]. - Negative Factors: Unstable operations of mines and coal washing plants during the safety production month, rising pithead prices during the peak demand season for thermal coal, intensified energy price fluctuations due to the tense situation in the Middle East, low probability of an immediate price increase after the fourth round of price cuts, stable coal production and supply throughout the year, and a decline in coal and coking demand following the inflection point of molten iron production [6][7] 3.4 Price Data - Coal and Coking Futures Prices: Data on coking coal and coke futures prices, including warehouse receipt costs, basis, spreads between different contract months, and relevant ratios such as coking profit, ore - coke ratio, etc., are provided, along with their daily and weekly changes [7]. - Coal and Coking Spot Prices: Data on various coal and coke spot prices, including those of domestic and imported coal, different grades of coke, and relevant profit data such as coking profit, import profit, and export profit, are provided, along with their daily and weekly changes [8][9]