POP MART(HK:09992) Qin Ce Xiao Fei Yan Jiu·2025-06-23 11:55Investment Rating - The report indicates a strong growth outlook for the Chinese IP toy industry, with a projected market size of RMB 2,025 billion by 2025, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 15.1% from 2020 to 2024 [11][12][30]. Core Insights - The emergence of high-quality IPs and accelerated commercialization are driving the growth of the Chinese IP toy market, which is expected to capture an increasing share of the overall IP derivative market, reaching 49.9% by 2029 [12][30]. - The consumer base is expanding beyond children to include adults, referred to as "big kids," who show a strong interest in collectible IP toys, indicating a significant growth potential in the market [25][32]. - The report highlights the importance of technological integration in enhancing the emotional value and collectible premium of toys, with static and movable dolls leading in growth rates [33][34]. Industry Status - The Chinese IP toy market is currently in a high-growth phase, with a market size of RMB 756 billion in 2024, accounting for 43.4% of the IP derivative market [12][30]. - The market is characterized by a significant differentiation among brands, with leading companies like LEGO, Pop Mart, and Blokus dominating the landscape [46][50]. - The report notes that the market is still in its early stages, transitioning towards a more diversified and high-end product offering [30]. Market Trends - The report identifies a trend of all-age consumption driving structural upgrades in the market, with adults increasingly participating in the toy market [20][25]. - The rise of domestic brands and the significant market share held by local companies reflect a shift towards localized IP development and commercialization [46][50]. - The report emphasizes the role of supportive policies in driving industry upgrades, including the integration of traditional culture into designs and the promotion of digitalization [37][39]. Competitive Landscape - The competitive landscape is marked by a "one strong, many strong" structure, with LEGO leading the market, followed by local brands like Pop Mart and Blokus [46][50]. - The report highlights the need for local brands to accelerate the incubation of breakout IPs to close the gap with leading companies [46][50]. - The market is expected to see increased collaboration among value chain participants, enhancing the monetization of IPs and extending their lifecycle [39][40].